Episode #92: The Three Scenarios For The U.S. Economy In The Coming Year & A Unique Service TO Help You Plan Financially W/Kelsey Williams

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So today is October 3rd, 2023.
So yeah, you're getting an extra

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episode this week, but don't
worry, I'll be back on Saturday

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to release another episode.
Now, I've been beating the drum

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periodically throughout this
podcast that I don't think the

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economy is in real great shape.
Last week Jerome Powell, our US

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Fed Chair, he came out and said
that there were five economic

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shocks coming to the US economy.
The 1st is the national debt

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reaching 33 trillion.
I mean what's 33 trillion

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between friends, right?
The oil is going to start

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heading north of $150.00 a
barrel, so that should make

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filling up your car really
affordable. the United, our auto

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workers strike which means
getting a new car or parts is

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going to get more expensive.
Student loan repayments are

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starting back up and mortgage
rates are hitting nearly 8%.

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And just as a side note, right
now the Dow is down nearly 400

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points, 388.65, and it's
continuing to slide as it did

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last week.
Now, because I'm not an

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economist, I have Kelsey
Williams back on the podcast to

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talk about the three most likely
scenarios that could happen to

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the economy in the coming year.
We look at what could trigger

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those events and what conditions
on the ground would look like.

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We then finish up by talking
about a a very unique and what I

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believe to be a worthwhile
service Kelsey is offering to

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help you make the best financial
decisions for you and your

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family.
That's next on this episode of

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the Mormon Renegade podcast.
Look, it's no secret that our

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society has become much more
crude and coarse to become and

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raise men and women of virtue
and characters, a Herculean

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task.
To help with this, I've recently

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wrote and published a book.
Now, back in the 1700s,

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Washington had a book called
Rules of Civility and Decent

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Behavior and Company and
Conversation.

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It was a book with 110 rules
that talked about how to conduct

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yourself like a civilized person
in society, something that

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today's society is sorely
lacking.

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What I did is I went back
through the book and I

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reinterpreted his original
sayings for the 21st century.

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So the book is laid out in a way
in which you see Washington's

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original rule.
Right below that is my

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explanation for the 21st
century, and below that you'll

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find two or three examples of
where to use this in the real

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world.
Now, to go along with this,

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there's a workbook that helps
parents teach these principles

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and practices to their kids.
To find the book, go to

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mormonrenegade.com, go to the
bottom of the page, search out

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the blog post, and order your
copy.

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Today, I can bear personal
testimony from personal

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experience that this is an
invaluable tool to help you

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raise men and women of virtue
and character.

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You're listening to the Mormon
Renegade podcast, Kelsey.

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So when I talked to you like
last week, I was on the road.

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I was somewhere I want.
I want to say I was in like

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Minnesota, but as as I was
talking to you, you've been

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busy, my man.
You've been picked up by a

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couple places as far as some of
your writings and stuff and

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you're you're getting out there,
you're getting after it.

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It's got to feel good.
Well, I'm getting a little

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exposure that I I I want and
need it's it's, you know, as I

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can expand my presence out
there, I feel good about it and

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it.
And it's primarily, you know,

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when someone takes the time to
ask a question or, you know,

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submit some kind of a response,
then I know, you know, I'm, I'm

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having an impact because it's
causing people to think.

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And now that's why I do it.
You know, I want people to hear

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a side of things that they might
not have thought about, and I

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also want them to.
Understand the fundamentals a

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little better so that they don't
run off thinking something is

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one way and then take action on
that assumption and find out

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that wasn't really the way it
was.

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So and I I you know what I
really like is somebody you know

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some of the professionals that
are in this field and they call

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and say we would like you to.
Write articles and and submit it

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to us and we'll post them on our
website and so so that's that's

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really you know I guess the
bigger part of my activity and

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what I'm doing and it's fun.
I enjoy it.

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Yeah, no, totally.
And like OK for everybody else

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is out.
You know every all my listeners

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tells he's got to get sick of
hearing from me because like

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there are times that I I'll read
something on the economy that

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just like I don't understand And
so like I'm constantly like what

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is this And Kelsey's like okay
bro let's go over this again.

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So if there's one thing I can
say for Kelsey, a couple things

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one he's wicked smart when it
comes to this the the the

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economy and gold and all all
that sort of stuff, just wicked

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smart.
The other thing is, is obviously

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because I bug him, he's super
patient.

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And then three he explains this
stuff in a way that even I can

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understand.
And that's why I enjoy having

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you on because the the I hate to
use the term but sometimes the

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feds use what what I like to
affectionately refer to as

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baffling you with BS.
Right.

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So they'll come out and they'll
you know say certain things or

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or they'll phrase it in such a
way that it either baffles you

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or makes you feel like you're
okay.

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And I always feel like I can
talk to you and and you'll give

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me the straight story and
usually that's backing me off a

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Cliff too to be quite honest.
Because most of the time I'm

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like here comes here comes and
you're like no, settle down

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Dave.
We're okay.

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So dude, I I appreciate.
I always appreciate our

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conversations, both on the
podcast and off.

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I I feel the same way for
different reasons.

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I mean, I'm very grateful that
you reached out, and that gives

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me an opportunity to express my
ideas and thoughts to a wider

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audience and to people who might
not have heard as much about it.

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So I'm grateful for it too.
And and grateful for the

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opportunity to see if.
What I'm thinking and what I'm

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saying and what I'm writing is
not just impactful, but is it

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credible.
And so you can, you know, if I

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can expand on that in a way that
people have a better degree of

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confidence about their own
activities and and then yeah, I

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think it's great.
I love it and I enjoy it.

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And I appreciate your
willingness to have me on, Oh,

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dude, anytime.
You know that I'm always down

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for these conversations.
So one of the things I want to

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get into and that we talked
about is we want to kind of give

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three likely scenarios, say,
over the next year or so.

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But before we do that real
quick, how would you gauge where

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we're setting economically right
now as a country?

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Are we in good shape?
Are we in bad shape?

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Are we just kind of muddling
along?

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I mean, do you have a sense for
that at all?

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The thing about it, that's I I
guess when you look at, when I

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look at what is happening and
where we are and and and by

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trying to put that in some kind
of historical perspective, I

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believe our vulnerability to
cataclysmic events is much

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greater now than ever.
It's probably.

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At a peak point, and the best
example I've give was is the one

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that I used when trying to
define inflation for people.

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You know you can only pump so
much air into a balloon before

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the integrity of the of the of
that inflation is subject to a

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pinprick or you explode it out
from the inside.

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The point is.
And historically speaking, when

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you look at where we are and the
amount of credit that's been

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used to boost the economy over
and over again, you know we run

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on credit and any kind of
implosion of that credit

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structure will take us into a
full scale depression.

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That's that's the risk.
And and the vulnerability that

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we face, then there's all sorts
of possibilities that can happen

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as a result of that.
But if you have people that are

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dependent on fixed incomes the
way, and I don't just mean

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people as ordinary people,
investments, everything else,

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all of our activity, whether
you're talking about funding

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businesses, buying houses,
financing automobiles.

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People live on credit.
They they fund everything.

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The world functions on credit.
But that's what central banks

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do.
They inflate the money supply,

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they create money.
Banks lend the money, they

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collect the interest.
And we use that inflated money

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to make everything work and go.
But the vulnerability is where

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we are.
We're we're just.

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We're at a point where you can
only do so much.

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And it's possible, quite
possible, that maybe whatever

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they can do won't stop this from
happening.

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And the other thing is that
people will look at it and say,

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well, the Fed created this
situation.

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Well, yeah, they did.
But they started creating that

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over 110 years ago when the Fed
was.

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Organized in 1913, because
that's what central banks do.

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They create money and then they
lend it out.

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All the banks are a part of
that.

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So it's been going on.
And then everything else they do

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is to cater to the effects of
that inflation.

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So over time, the volatility
increases.

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The cumulative effects increase
the volatility, but it makes us

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more vulnerable.
So you can't, you know, it

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seems, it seems simple to say,
well, we're going to, we're

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going to raise interest rates
and see if we can tone inflation

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down.
Well, they haven't really

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stopped inflating.
They're just going to make it

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more costly to borrow money.
So it's like we're still spiking

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the punch, but we're going to
charge you for it now.

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Before it was free, all right.
It's like the dealer that got

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hooked you up.
And that's really what's

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happened.
It's kind of like the dealer,

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the guy on crack with a free
sample.

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Yeah.
I mean the the leverage here is,

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is a big issue.
Rehypothecation is a term that

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people might have heard before
and all it means is you have

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underlying investment or
something real and then you

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have.
A continual amplification of how

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that is used and packaged into
different products.

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And so and it doesn't matter
what it is, I mean they do it

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with gold bullion stored in the
banks.

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They do it with treasury bonds.
They they do it with, you know,

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they create little packages and.
Called derivatives and and they

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sell them as securities.
But everybody's dependent on the

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same underlying investment and
at some point boom.

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And and just like we went
through in 20/08/2010, that

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period you had a collapse in the
credit markets because people

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knew that, you know, you
couldn't afford a mortgage on a

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$300,000 house if you were
earning. 10 bucks an hour at a

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convenience store, but you were
approved.

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And then when people realized
that they had reset those and

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people couldn't pay them, you
know, the the creditworthiness

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of customers, the the, the free.
You know the idea of building

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this idea and to people in
society that everybody deserves

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to be able to buy a house,
everybody deserve 3 square

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meals, everybody deserves an
education.

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So we're going to see to it that
you get it.

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The problem is, if you haven't
earned it, you know, and then

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you pay for it with money that
was created pretty much out of

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thin air and you couldn't
support that debt.

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So the vulnerability is I think
where we are the biggest, the

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biggest issue, we're vulnerable
to systemwide problems.

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It's not an individual thing,
it's more a systemwide thing and

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it's, you know, technology.
Look at the technology.

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We are so advanced,
technologically speaking, in the

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last 20 years.
What would happen if we suddenly

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found ourselves dealing with
technology on a level that we

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knew and we're familiar with in
1990?

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How would we feel?
What?

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What's missing?
OK, most people didn't have

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personal computers yet. 1990 I
didn't.

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I, I, And then I think of the
phones, you know, the, the

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everybody just assumes things
are a certain way and what

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happens when you wake up one day
and maybe that isn't there.

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But financially the big risk is
it's a House of Cards.

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It was built on sand originally
and the sand is getting washed

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away.
And and the whole thing is in

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danger of coming down and and
they might be able to tweak it.

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They might be able to convince
people that it's not that bad

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and they can fix it and they've
done it more and more.

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00:15:12,660 --> 00:15:19,020
But no matter how you how they
how well they do at it, each

225
00:15:19,020 --> 00:15:25,620
succeeding problem we face to
whatever degree of success they

226
00:15:25,620 --> 00:15:29,540
have and bringing us back to
more normal behavior.

227
00:15:30,450 --> 00:15:36,410
And activity is always less than
the level we were at before and

228
00:15:36,410 --> 00:15:39,610
that's been happening for
several decades.

229
00:15:41,170 --> 00:15:48,170
Economic activity, productivity
value even on inflation adjusted

230
00:15:48,170 --> 00:15:53,010
basis has been dropping.
I mean the cost of price goes up

231
00:15:53,010 --> 00:15:56,730
as the dollar continues to lose
purchasing power, but.

232
00:15:57,460 --> 00:16:01,900
If you look back on an inflation
adjusted basis, it's cheaper

233
00:16:01,900 --> 00:16:07,500
today for the thing we buy
relative to 1980 in terms of

234
00:16:07,500 --> 00:16:15,580
inflation adjusted dollars.
So we're we're losing on a real

235
00:16:15,940 --> 00:16:21,220
dollar basis whatever values we
have which means we're headed

236
00:16:21,220 --> 00:16:25,460
towards the possibility of
something like the 1930s.

237
00:16:27,390 --> 00:16:29,350
OK.
So that gives us that paints a

238
00:16:29,350 --> 00:16:32,830
pretty good good picture of
where we're at as we sit right

239
00:16:32,830 --> 00:16:35,230
now.
We're exposed right.

240
00:16:35,230 --> 00:16:36,870
I mean there, there's no way
around there.

241
00:16:38,310 --> 00:16:43,950
We're we're, we're over
leveraged and and there probably

242
00:16:43,950 --> 00:16:49,950
just maybe A1 Black Swan event
away from from you know the

243
00:16:49,950 --> 00:16:56,670
trouble, right I, I, yeah, yeah,
no.

244
00:16:57,030 --> 00:17:01,990
So let's, let's look, let's look
at the at like 3 scenarios,

245
00:17:02,030 --> 00:17:04,109
right.
Let's, let's look at best case

246
00:17:04,109 --> 00:17:08,150
scenario then kind of the middle
of the road then let's look at

247
00:17:08,150 --> 00:17:11,390
the worst case scenario.
So over the next year, what do

248
00:17:11,390 --> 00:17:16,109
you think our best case scenario
is for the economy on the micro

249
00:17:16,190 --> 00:17:17,510
macro level?
Excuse me?

250
00:17:19,630 --> 00:17:28,160
On a best case basis.
We can hope that the feds,

251
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:37,600
assuming their intention is to
support the dollar, OK, and and

252
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:42,040
improve it's and they're doing a
pretty good job of that or it's

253
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:45,680
simply irregardless of what they
do the dollar is strong.

254
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,330
You hear a lot about it.
But the dollar strong, but to

255
00:17:49,330 --> 00:17:53,890
whatever extent the Fed is
successful in keeping the

256
00:17:53,890 --> 00:18:01,130
effects of inflation moderate
instead of double digit or close

257
00:18:01,130 --> 00:18:10,770
to that and a strong dollar and
restore some confidence then you

258
00:18:10,770 --> 00:18:15,090
know on a best case basis to
this extent they can do that we

259
00:18:15,090 --> 00:18:19,810
can see.
You know activity pick up.

260
00:18:19,850 --> 00:18:24,090
I mean if we wanted to use a
recent example to see well can

261
00:18:24,130 --> 00:18:28,690
things how, how well can we do,
let's look back at 2/2/2008 to

262
00:18:28,690 --> 00:18:32,370
2011.
If you look at that period, even

263
00:18:32,370 --> 00:18:39,130
after that, when they stopped
the damage, they did some things

264
00:18:39,130 --> 00:18:41,610
to do that.
That made the Fed and the

265
00:18:41,610 --> 00:18:44,730
banking system much more
vulnerable this time around.

266
00:18:45,150 --> 00:18:49,150
Than before because of the
action they took to stem the

267
00:18:49,150 --> 00:18:51,510
bloodletting in the credit
markets.

268
00:18:52,350 --> 00:18:56,550
And and so it was something they
haven't done before.

269
00:18:56,550 --> 00:18:59,470
They started buying more than
treasury securities.

270
00:18:59,470 --> 00:19:03,190
They bought mortgage-backed
securities, anything with any

271
00:19:03,190 --> 00:19:07,550
collateral obligations, and they
had all these things on their

272
00:19:07,550 --> 00:19:11,170
books and then they started.
Trying to liquidate them.

273
00:19:11,410 --> 00:19:15,490
What that did though is the Fed
was simply saying nobody else

274
00:19:15,490 --> 00:19:18,250
wants these things.
They're going to be worthless.

275
00:19:18,330 --> 00:19:21,370
We're going to go in and create
money and buy them and hold them

276
00:19:21,370 --> 00:19:25,090
on our books.
And so it's like, you know,

277
00:19:25,090 --> 00:19:29,010
people could think of it in
terms of a stock or bond they

278
00:19:29,010 --> 00:19:32,610
own and the price is dropping
and suddenly a buyer appears and

279
00:19:32,610 --> 00:19:39,260
says, I want a lot of that.
And until they get the

280
00:19:39,340 --> 00:19:41,260
publicity, everything pushes it
up.

281
00:19:41,260 --> 00:19:45,660
Somebody somewhere along the
line there's a balance because

282
00:19:45,660 --> 00:19:48,540
there's always a buyer and
selling for every transaction.

283
00:19:48,540 --> 00:19:53,140
But sooner or later you get
enough emphasis behind that and

284
00:19:53,140 --> 00:19:56,780
enough people who want to buy
that.

285
00:19:58,010 --> 00:20:01,130
You know you you can stabilize
prices and that's what the Fed

286
00:20:01,130 --> 00:20:04,530
did is they stabilize things
then they had to work on trying

287
00:20:04,530 --> 00:20:09,330
to restore confidence and build
the level of economic activity

288
00:20:09,330 --> 00:20:12,690
up.
Well, if I don't know, you know,

289
00:20:12,690 --> 00:20:18,290
people hopefully can remember it
took over five years to start to

290
00:20:18,290 --> 00:20:24,770
see some kind of progress and it
was we were just starting to hit

291
00:20:24,770 --> 00:20:29,420
a reasonable stride.
After 10 years or so.

292
00:20:29,940 --> 00:20:35,660
And what was worrying the Fed
then and like 2018 was they

293
00:20:35,660 --> 00:20:38,820
thought inflation should be
higher than the effects of it.

294
00:20:38,820 --> 00:20:42,420
And that was because they were
doing the kind of things that

295
00:20:42,420 --> 00:20:46,700
should have made people wonder,
my gosh, you know, things are

296
00:20:46,700 --> 00:20:48,340
cheap.
Let's start buying some.

297
00:20:49,820 --> 00:20:54,680
And that's concerned them.
So they knew that their

298
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,480
activities didn't have the same
impact as before, OK.

299
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:06,560
And so but then coke would hit
and even though they knew they

300
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,640
had it to, had to.
And then after they shut down

301
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:15,520
the economy then what they had
to do is go in and make all the

302
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:20,200
recommit the same mistakes they
made before make money plentiful

303
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:25,570
again and make it cheap and do
that which they did because our

304
00:21:25,570 --> 00:21:29,650
economic activity had gone
plunged to virtually nothing

305
00:21:29,650 --> 00:21:31,610
while we were all forced to
shutins.

306
00:21:33,850 --> 00:21:40,130
So but getting us back to a
certain level and then they came

307
00:21:40,130 --> 00:21:43,930
out and said okay now we're each
time the impact is less and less

308
00:21:44,330 --> 00:21:48,410
and less.
Now we're in a situation where

309
00:21:48,490 --> 00:21:53,940
if they're successful we will
not see economic activity

310
00:21:54,140 --> 00:21:58,580
anywhere close to the level we
are used to and that would be

311
00:21:58,580 --> 00:22:02,380
considered successful.
That's that's what I would

312
00:22:02,380 --> 00:22:07,180
consider the best possibility.
And what, what do the conditions

313
00:22:07,180 --> 00:22:10,700
look like on the ground for the
average family, right?

314
00:22:11,060 --> 00:22:13,900
Is it going to resemble what
we're, we're, we're seeing right

315
00:22:13,900 --> 00:22:16,980
now?
Yeah.

316
00:22:18,020 --> 00:22:21,980
And and maybe more of it and
maybe you'll have more bumps in

317
00:22:21,980 --> 00:22:25,660
the road.
You know, it's like you're on

318
00:22:25,660 --> 00:22:28,180
the freeway and you're going 80
miles an hour.

319
00:22:28,300 --> 00:22:32,860
You don't think much of what you
look at the time and you say,

320
00:22:32,860 --> 00:22:35,260
oh, we'll be there in 2, 1/2
hours.

321
00:22:35,260 --> 00:22:37,620
Booms is great.
Everything's smooth.

322
00:22:37,980 --> 00:22:40,540
And then different things
happen.

323
00:22:40,540 --> 00:22:46,100
One, you run into a traffic
pattern, OK, That stops

324
00:22:46,100 --> 00:22:49,640
everything.
OK, now suddenly well, you're on

325
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,440
the right Rd. you're on the
fast, you're in the fast lane,

326
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,680
but you can't go anywhere,
right?

327
00:22:56,040 --> 00:23:01,000
Or you you have another part of
your journey that involves side

328
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:06,960
roads, back roads or whatever
that you don't have 4 lanes each

329
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,840
way at 80 miles an hour.
Maybe it's a two lane highway.

330
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,320
Well, you can't go as fast on
the two lane highway.

331
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:19,240
Well that may be the kind of
comparison that's apt for what

332
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,960
we're looking at.
If we want to want it to work,

333
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,680
we may have to go in a different
direction and that direction

334
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:35,720
will likely involve some serious
depletion in productivity and

335
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:39,620
activity and just to make keep
it going and make it work of

336
00:23:39,620 --> 00:23:43,180
some kind.
So you could very well see some

337
00:23:43,180 --> 00:23:50,180
higher unemployment.
You could see again more more

338
00:23:50,180 --> 00:23:57,860
sensitivity to changes.
So but you know, it's it's hard

339
00:23:57,860 --> 00:24:01,140
to say because you don't know
how people are going to respond.

340
00:24:01,300 --> 00:24:03,700
You don't know how individuals
are going to respond.

341
00:24:03,900 --> 00:24:07,460
You throw in all the other
issues that people have today

342
00:24:07,660 --> 00:24:11,340
about politics, social issues,
that sort of thing.

343
00:24:11,660 --> 00:24:16,180
Well, that adds an element that
has a big impact on economic

344
00:24:16,180 --> 00:24:22,060
activity and productivity.
So I don't see things getting a

345
00:24:22,060 --> 00:24:24,140
whole lot better than where they
are.

346
00:24:24,340 --> 00:24:28,180
But I look at it and say we get
up, we go to work today, we do

347
00:24:28,180 --> 00:24:31,420
this, we do that.
You know, the majority of people

348
00:24:31,420 --> 00:24:34,900
are conducting their lives.
They're not dealing with crisis

349
00:24:34,900 --> 00:24:42,660
after crisis on a daily basis.
I think as individuals we're

350
00:24:42,660 --> 00:24:46,460
probably more vulnerable not to
something we're doing as

351
00:24:46,460 --> 00:24:49,020
individuals, but to a system
problem.

352
00:24:49,420 --> 00:24:53,180
And that's why I don't think
that we'll necessarily see a

353
00:24:53,180 --> 00:24:59,960
great deal of improvement in
what's happening economically.

354
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:05,600
But for some of us, or maybe for
a large enough percentage, we

355
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,360
can continue to make things
work.

356
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,480
You know, as long as the system
pulls up.

357
00:25:12,540 --> 00:25:15,180
Yeah.
And and to me that's that's the

358
00:25:15,180 --> 00:25:18,300
saddest part of all.
And and that's the part that I

359
00:25:18,300 --> 00:25:20,980
worry about the most, right, is
what you just said there.

360
00:25:21,300 --> 00:25:24,380
It's not so much what people are
doing individually as it is the

361
00:25:24,380 --> 00:25:27,100
system, right?
So it's almost like one of those

362
00:25:27,100 --> 00:25:29,900
things of something someone's
doing to us.

363
00:25:30,620 --> 00:25:34,020
And my great fear in that is
that people get angry, right.

364
00:25:34,100 --> 00:25:38,300
And that, and I understand that
it's okay to be angry, but you

365
00:25:38,300 --> 00:25:39,940
got to keep it under control
somehow.

366
00:25:39,940 --> 00:25:42,260
But.
But that's always, always my

367
00:25:42,260 --> 00:25:47,300
fear, right, is how how does the
general populist react, right,

368
00:25:47,300 --> 00:25:49,700
in that sort of scenario where
where it's something they feel

369
00:25:49,700 --> 00:25:53,060
like it has been done to you,
not because of something you

370
00:25:53,060 --> 00:25:55,100
did.
And and I totally get it.

371
00:25:55,100 --> 00:26:01,300
Look, if I do something stupid,
I fully expect to to reap the

372
00:26:01,620 --> 00:26:03,820
the benefits of those stupid
decisions.

373
00:26:04,180 --> 00:26:06,700
It's another thing when it
happens to you, right?

374
00:26:06,700 --> 00:26:08,460
And and that that always
concerns me.

375
00:26:09,290 --> 00:26:11,050
So, you know, part of what?
You.

376
00:26:11,050 --> 00:26:12,250
I'm sorry, no.
Go ahead.

377
00:26:13,250 --> 00:26:16,330
Well, I say part of what you're
saying there, too, If you look

378
00:26:16,330 --> 00:26:23,530
at where where you live and
observe the activity going on

379
00:26:23,530 --> 00:26:26,410
around you.
Now compare that to what's

380
00:26:26,410 --> 00:26:31,170
happened in the inner cities
downtown, San Francisco,

381
00:26:31,650 --> 00:26:40,820
Seattle, Portland, Chicago.
You know, things are a lot

382
00:26:40,820 --> 00:26:44,460
different.
I have my, you know, my son

383
00:26:45,340 --> 00:26:49,020
travels quite a bit.
He's a an executive with an

384
00:26:49,020 --> 00:26:53,700
international food company.
And you know, he was in at a

385
00:26:53,700 --> 00:26:57,340
business trip to Philadelphia
and they were out, out of the

386
00:26:57,340 --> 00:27:00,300
city was where their hotel was
and their meetings were out

387
00:27:00,300 --> 00:27:04,780
there and and and he was just
talking to someone there.

388
00:27:05,060 --> 00:27:09,060
They said look, whatever you do,
don't bother to go into the

389
00:27:09,060 --> 00:27:13,180
city.
You don't want to go and and and

390
00:27:13,180 --> 00:27:16,860
that's the thing, you know, all
of these cities, the ones I

391
00:27:16,860 --> 00:27:19,060
mentioned, I've been to them
all.

392
00:27:19,060 --> 00:27:20,980
I've.
I've walked those streets.

393
00:27:20,980 --> 00:27:26,980
I've been to the the, the clubs
and and the places to eat and

394
00:27:27,020 --> 00:27:32,340
and listen to the music and and
the shopping and and I love

395
00:27:32,340 --> 00:27:35,260
that.
But you know what?

396
00:27:35,910 --> 00:27:37,390
I don't want to go there right
now.

397
00:27:37,750 --> 00:27:42,430
I don't like the way things are.
And and I'm just grateful that

398
00:27:43,590 --> 00:27:46,870
you know it at this point.
That's where it is.

399
00:27:48,670 --> 00:27:50,670
Those are the kind of things
that bother me.

400
00:27:50,670 --> 00:27:54,470
What you can plan all you want
and do all the right things,

401
00:27:54,470 --> 00:28:01,310
seemingly.
But if we have breakdowns in

402
00:28:01,310 --> 00:28:07,930
society on a functional basis,
what difference does it make

403
00:28:07,930 --> 00:28:13,690
what you how you planned, you
know, financially or that you

404
00:28:13,690 --> 00:28:16,650
know the Fed pursued the correct
policy.

405
00:28:16,850 --> 00:28:20,130
So that's where we get when you
talk about the anger, it doesn't

406
00:28:20,130 --> 00:28:23,530
matter what the anger's for.
It's just the fact that we see

407
00:28:23,530 --> 00:28:28,010
more accepting of behavior
that's, I don't know, for lack

408
00:28:28,010 --> 00:28:30,740
of a better word, antisocial
right.

409
00:28:31,100 --> 00:28:35,580
We think if we if we if things
are wrong, we're supposed to

410
00:28:35,580 --> 00:28:39,300
make us think about it and we're
going to have it one way or the

411
00:28:39,300 --> 00:28:41,300
other.
And that again goes to that

412
00:28:41,300 --> 00:28:46,860
entitlement attitude that
because of this, I'm this and

413
00:28:46,860 --> 00:28:50,900
and what whatever the reasoning
is or the logic behind it isn't

414
00:28:50,900 --> 00:28:54,460
the point.
The point is it doesn't matter.

415
00:28:55,180 --> 00:29:01,330
It still creates a problem of
its own that dwarfs everything

416
00:29:01,330 --> 00:29:03,570
else.
Yeah, because they're not

417
00:29:03,570 --> 00:29:05,770
thinking about that.
Yeah.

418
00:29:05,890 --> 00:29:08,770
And and the other thing you said
there about just being able to

419
00:29:08,770 --> 00:29:12,490
kind of of keep this thing
going, I, I'll be honest, I've

420
00:29:12,490 --> 00:29:14,570
been amazed.
I mean, we had, what, three or

421
00:29:14,570 --> 00:29:18,970
four bank failures this past
year and we barely skipped.

422
00:29:20,090 --> 00:29:22,130
We we barely skipped a beat,
right.

423
00:29:22,130 --> 00:29:24,170
We just kept going.
I was like, well, that's that's

424
00:29:24,170 --> 00:29:27,690
one hell of a rabbit you just
pulled out of that hat, so.

425
00:29:28,180 --> 00:29:33,860
Yeah, I I I don't doubt their
ability to keep putting duct

426
00:29:33,860 --> 00:29:36,060
tape on the Titanic, but somehow
they do it.

427
00:29:36,060 --> 00:29:42,700
But all right, so that gives us,
they'll probably continue to do

428
00:29:42,700 --> 00:29:44,660
that.
They'll probably continue to do

429
00:29:44,660 --> 00:29:48,660
that.
They will try to make things

430
00:29:48,700 --> 00:29:55,860
appear as ordinary and normal as
possible because otherwise they

431
00:29:56,460 --> 00:30:01,720
their efforts will go for not
there.

432
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:05,120
What will happen is we find out
there are more bank failures.

433
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:11,120
They will have already been
failure technically, but not

434
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:15,120
officially.
So I'm sure that the Fed

435
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:21,760
realizes that situation.
So they're not going to be as

436
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,900
free to disclose the potential
problems.

437
00:30:25,900 --> 00:30:29,820
They're going to do whatever
they can to camouflage it, if

438
00:30:29,820 --> 00:30:34,580
you will, or or make us believe
that it's not as bad as they say

439
00:30:36,740 --> 00:30:39,940
or as bad as it really is.
It's worse than they say.

440
00:30:39,940 --> 00:30:42,620
But they they don't want us
thinking that way.

441
00:30:43,220 --> 00:30:45,500
I think it's very realistic.
We're going to have more bank

442
00:30:45,500 --> 00:30:52,330
failures and if and if you
believe, if you go ahead, I'm

443
00:30:52,330 --> 00:30:53,690
sorry.
No, no, no, you go ahead.

444
00:30:53,730 --> 00:30:55,050
I'm I'm letting you finish up.
I get.

445
00:30:55,170 --> 00:30:57,330
I get.
I get on my soapbox and I you're

446
00:30:57,690 --> 00:31:07,210
going to say if you if you want
to throw in just as an aside for

447
00:31:07,210 --> 00:31:13,690
those who are more attuned to
it, the conspiratorial attitude.

448
00:31:14,490 --> 00:31:18,550
Some of the things that are
happening are probably

449
00:31:18,550 --> 00:31:23,830
engineered to happen the way
they are, at least to a degree.

450
00:31:25,230 --> 00:31:31,110
The reason being, you know,
people say what they think is

451
00:31:31,110 --> 00:31:34,070
going to get them the attention
that they want.

452
00:31:34,670 --> 00:31:36,750
Politicians are notorious for
that.

453
00:31:37,310 --> 00:31:40,430
It isn't that they believe
they're going to do something or

454
00:31:40,430 --> 00:31:44,110
that they expect to.
For the most part, they say what

455
00:31:44,110 --> 00:31:45,830
they think is going to get them
elected.

456
00:31:47,110 --> 00:31:53,750
Now just imagine that you take
that take, go beyond that point

457
00:31:53,790 --> 00:31:57,350
and say who wants who elected
and for what reasons.

458
00:31:57,790 --> 00:32:01,030
Then you start to look at things
and you can come up with all

459
00:32:01,030 --> 00:32:06,350
sorts of crazy ideas about, you
know, why should why should we

460
00:32:06,350 --> 00:32:10,870
suddenly have social violence in
umpteen different large cities,

461
00:32:10,950 --> 00:32:14,990
you know, in the middle of a
shut down, you know, and things

462
00:32:14,990 --> 00:32:15,870
like that.
So.

463
00:32:16,670 --> 00:32:19,990
And then with all the
revelations happening on a daily

464
00:32:19,990 --> 00:32:23,790
basis about what really happened
in the election and and why are

465
00:32:23,790 --> 00:32:26,550
people surprised at this?
I don't get it.

466
00:32:26,590 --> 00:32:29,470
You know, everybody's like shock
of shock.

467
00:32:29,470 --> 00:32:32,870
So you mean so there was some
collusion involved here.

468
00:32:34,270 --> 00:32:37,990
You know, it doesn't matter
which side of the of the

469
00:32:37,990 --> 00:32:40,670
political spectrum you're on or
where you are on it.

470
00:32:41,270 --> 00:32:46,910
If you assume that things are
right on your side and that the

471
00:32:46,910 --> 00:32:52,750
other side is wrong, then you're
not paying attention because

472
00:32:52,830 --> 00:32:56,710
there really isn't much
difference in what happens on

473
00:32:56,750 --> 00:33:01,350
historically from one generation
to the next based on who's

474
00:33:01,350 --> 00:33:06,150
elected.
We're headed in a certain

475
00:33:06,150 --> 00:33:07,870
direction and it's not a good
one.

476
00:33:09,070 --> 00:33:12,920
You know and and look.
I don't think it's out of the

477
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:17,560
realm of of reality to to just
look back at COVID, right?

478
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,480
Mom and pop shops got shut down,
but who got to stay open?

479
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:28,240
Walmart and Amazon, right?
And the big company stayed open.

480
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:33,360
The little company suffered and
you know, whether we like to

481
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:38,280
admit it or not, that definitely
took us a good size step in the

482
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,880
direction of kind of a planned
economy I think.

483
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,720
And those who wanted to play
ball with the government, they

484
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,440
they got to keep their doors
open.

485
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,400
Yeah, you're you're correct.
Exactly correct.

486
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:58,400
There is a you look at the
things you you cannot come up

487
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:07,160
with genuine fundamental
reasoning that would explain why

488
00:34:08,010 --> 00:34:12,449
certain policies were put in
place or why certain executive

489
00:34:12,449 --> 00:34:18,530
orders were written and came
into effect.

490
00:34:18,570 --> 00:34:24,850
I mean, it doesn't make sense it
they weren't trying to make

491
00:34:24,850 --> 00:34:27,650
sense of things.
They would draw a picture for

492
00:34:27,650 --> 00:34:32,920
you, but it was it just
everything was out of the lines.

493
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:37,239
It's okay to go outside the box,
but there wasn't anything for

494
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:41,760
people to to hold on to to make
sense out of.

495
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:47,480
It was just literally a comedy
of errors and I don't think it

496
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,679
was all happenstance.
Absolutely.

497
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,520
All right, let's move on to like
the the, the middle of the road

498
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,760
scenario.
It's not, you know, the best it

499
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,680
could be, but it's not, you
know.

500
00:35:00,740 --> 00:35:02,300
Utter.
You know, it's not the house

501
00:35:02,300 --> 00:35:05,500
isn't on fire, so to speak.
What's kind of the the the

502
00:35:05,500 --> 00:35:10,540
middle that you could see it
going again that that would be

503
00:35:13,020 --> 00:35:18,660
that would be where we restore
things to a reasonable level but

504
00:35:18,660 --> 00:35:20,020
it's never going to be quite as
good.

505
00:35:20,020 --> 00:35:23,580
We just can't that's that's that
middle of the road with that

506
00:35:23,700 --> 00:35:28,580
it's reasonably tame.
It's acceptable if if inflation

507
00:35:29,460 --> 00:35:35,900
rates continue to decline and
maybe level off at 3 or 4%,

508
00:35:36,300 --> 00:35:41,580
people aren't going to you know
scream about it the way they did

509
00:35:41,580 --> 00:35:47,260
at when they were 9 and 10%.
I mean you run 2, two years at

510
00:35:47,780 --> 00:35:51,900
three years at 9 or 10%, you're
talking about 25 to 30%

511
00:35:51,900 --> 00:35:55,340
increases in prices for good and
services.

512
00:35:55,820 --> 00:36:00,440
That is clear.
Real quickly, you know that

513
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:05,400
there's something wrong.
So think back, you know we had

514
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:11,880
all those years with inflation
at rates that you know it wasn't

515
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,200
an issue.
You know, who cared if prices

516
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,520
were up 1.2% last year?
Didn't matter because our

517
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:21,120
productivity levels and the
profits were good and everything

518
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:28,780
was was working.
So will you know getting any

519
00:36:28,780 --> 00:36:34,700
kind of normalcy is going to be
the best we can expect and it's

520
00:36:34,700 --> 00:36:37,740
not going to be great.
But yeah, can't, you know, is it

521
00:36:37,740 --> 00:36:41,620
possible they can continue to
improve from here?

522
00:36:41,620 --> 00:36:46,780
Yeah, here's the problem.
We don't really know how bad it

523
00:36:46,780 --> 00:36:51,020
is because we're not Privy to
that information.

524
00:36:52,340 --> 00:36:58,430
They won't tell us.
Here's the situation as it

525
00:36:58,430 --> 00:37:02,670
really is.
They will tell you how it is

526
00:37:03,150 --> 00:37:04,950
based on what they want you to
know.

527
00:37:05,710 --> 00:37:09,670
And when I say they, I don't
care whether it's Fed chairman

528
00:37:09,670 --> 00:37:18,430
or the president or even members
of Congress, I mean, I don't.

529
00:37:18,990 --> 00:37:21,190
There's there's a few people who
will speak out.

530
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,040
They're the ones who are being
subjected to most of the

531
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,440
ridicule and the condemnation
and the problems.

532
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:35,120
Otherwise, you know, it's it's
funny, but if you do something

533
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:42,200
that's obviously wrong, but
someone wants your intentions

534
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:48,360
and a message to be sent, you'll
get the support that you need.

535
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:55,100
But if someone wants to make a
case against you for anything,

536
00:37:55,500 --> 00:37:57,980
they'll look for the smallest
thing and blow it out of

537
00:37:57,980 --> 00:38:01,140
proportion.
So the problem here when you're

538
00:38:01,140 --> 00:38:06,860
dealing with that financial and
economics stuff, is that it's

539
00:38:06,860 --> 00:38:14,540
difficult to understand what is
really happening based on what's

540
00:38:14,540 --> 00:38:20,500
reported.
I read an article I read that

541
00:38:21,180 --> 00:38:27,340
talked at length about how every
ten I've I've course I've seen

542
00:38:27,340 --> 00:38:30,060
this over the years, but it's
amazing.

543
00:38:30,540 --> 00:38:35,980
All of the statistics that we're
getting are being continually

544
00:38:35,980 --> 00:38:42,260
revised, which isn't surprising.
But they're being revised in

545
00:38:43,660 --> 00:38:49,150
much larger percentages on a
month to month basis, and

546
00:38:49,150 --> 00:38:53,510
they're done after the fact in
ways that allow them to report a

547
00:38:53,510 --> 00:38:56,550
new statistic in a more positive
light.

548
00:38:57,150 --> 00:39:01,230
Here's an example and and this
is the way it works, going to

549
00:39:01,230 --> 00:39:13,910
say, OK, we have to announce
tomorrow that unemployment went

550
00:39:13,910 --> 00:39:19,720
up starkly.
Now we don't want to announce

551
00:39:19,720 --> 00:39:26,600
that the way it is.
So given what we reported last

552
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:32,800
month, let's inflate that
statistics and and that and

553
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,760
we'll call it a revision where
I'll do whatever they need to.

554
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:41,200
They're going to make that
number appear different than it

555
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:47,040
was in order that when they make
this announcement they don't

556
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,800
have, they don't announce it,
it's based on the revised

557
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:54,280
statistics.
So maybe unemployment's up 5%

558
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,520
from last month.
I'm using an extreme to to for

559
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:01,640
the example, but we don't want
to tell you it was up.

560
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:05,520
Unemployment was up that bad.
So we're going to tell you it

561
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,160
was up.
Yes, it was up.

562
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,880
It was only up two or three
basis last month's number.

563
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,960
Oh, but we revised last month's
number.

564
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,840
See, you don't see those in the
headlines.

565
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,040
They're usually, they'll tell
you they always stayed it.

566
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:28,960
It's like, OK, things were bad,
but they were worse than because

567
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,160
we've revised things.
And so they're always looking

568
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,640
for ways to continually massage
these statistics along the way.

569
00:40:36,690 --> 00:40:40,570
You may and eventually end up
with the, the, the more

570
00:40:40,570 --> 00:40:43,410
reasonably correct number.
But if you're continually

571
00:40:43,410 --> 00:40:48,370
massaging them to fit the moment
so that you can make an

572
00:40:48,370 --> 00:40:54,090
announcement that doesn't make
you look as bad, or we're better

573
00:40:54,090 --> 00:40:58,690
off than we say we are, and and
it works both ways, it doesn't

574
00:40:58,690 --> 00:41:03,530
matter what the statistic is.
Well, besides the fact that

575
00:41:03,530 --> 00:41:11,370
that's done that way, the other
thing is it makes it difficult

576
00:41:11,370 --> 00:41:15,810
to believe anything because they
are always revising them.

577
00:41:16,130 --> 00:41:21,650
So how do you, how do you know
how bad it was or how good it

578
00:41:21,650 --> 00:41:23,690
wasn't?
You know, whatever, whatever

579
00:41:23,690 --> 00:41:32,970
we're looking at.
So that's why we get such such a

580
00:41:34,260 --> 00:41:40,380
fired up response when Mrs.
Jones goes to the grocery store

581
00:41:40,380 --> 00:41:46,980
and finds that she's paying 25%
more for her groceries this

582
00:41:46,980 --> 00:41:50,860
month than she did last month,
You know you're going to hear

583
00:41:50,860 --> 00:41:55,180
about that.
And so that's that's real.

584
00:41:55,220 --> 00:41:59,900
I mean, it's happened regardless
of how we got to that point or

585
00:41:59,900 --> 00:42:03,820
anything about the reporting
that's real.

586
00:42:04,220 --> 00:42:09,260
So that gives people a gauge, if
you will, to say, well, it's a

587
00:42:09,260 --> 00:42:13,060
hell of a lot worse than what
they're saying or it's not quite

588
00:42:13,060 --> 00:42:15,900
that bad.
And it varies from individual to

589
00:42:15,900 --> 00:42:20,220
individual.
I didn't find it so extreme, but

590
00:42:20,220 --> 00:42:23,140
then I had a, and I may have
mentioned this before, I had a

591
00:42:23,140 --> 00:42:28,780
college professor in one of my
classes who said he's got three

592
00:42:28,780 --> 00:42:31,580
young kids and he's 35 years
old.

593
00:42:32,610 --> 00:42:39,850
And he, you know, he said that
over that period of time after

594
00:42:39,850 --> 00:42:49,290
COVID, his cost for groceries
almost doubled buying for his

595
00:42:49,290 --> 00:42:54,290
family and stuff like that.
I think that's realistic for him

596
00:42:54,490 --> 00:42:57,530
based on what he buys and you
know, and that's the thing.

597
00:42:57,530 --> 00:42:58,970
We got to take that into
account.

598
00:43:02,470 --> 00:43:05,510
You know there was a lot of
reasons for that that are

599
00:43:05,510 --> 00:43:07,670
different and why Price did
that.

600
00:43:07,670 --> 00:43:12,350
But the point is it it's
different for each of us and so

601
00:43:12,590 --> 00:43:19,590
but it's real see so his his
knowledge and experience

602
00:43:19,670 --> 00:43:24,490
relative to that are not going
to be the same as someone who it

603
00:43:24,490 --> 00:43:28,690
isn't affected quite the same
way who has a more flexible

604
00:43:28,690 --> 00:43:33,530
income or has some other things
that take the pressure off.

605
00:43:33,530 --> 00:43:38,290
You know you have relatively
fixed expenses other than

606
00:43:38,290 --> 00:43:42,330
groceries.
You don't notice it the same for

607
00:43:42,330 --> 00:43:46,090
a young family like when you
don't have a lot of income what

608
00:43:46,090 --> 00:43:50,130
the biggest chunk of his
flexible money is his grocery

609
00:43:50,130 --> 00:43:51,930
budget.
So.

610
00:43:52,650 --> 00:43:57,960
So he's going to notice that.
So it that's real stuff that you

611
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,400
can't go by.
You said, oh, inflation was up

612
00:44:01,720 --> 00:44:04,320
at an annualized rate of 7% to
him.

613
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:09,560
You say, Look, if it was only 7%
I'd I'd be happy as a lark, but

614
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,360
it was a lot more for him.
Right.

615
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:16,280
And and maybe that would explain
also what we could, what we

616
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,120
potentially see as conditions on
the ground, right?

617
00:44:19,580 --> 00:44:23,420
Is is maybe kind of for lack of
a better term gas lighting where

618
00:44:23,420 --> 00:44:28,180
where we get told it's not so
bad but then we but then we see

619
00:44:28,180 --> 00:44:30,980
something completely different
on the ground, right.

620
00:44:31,340 --> 00:44:34,420
We we see something completely
different at the store.

621
00:44:35,180 --> 00:44:40,780
So I I think that gives us a
pretty good picture there and

622
00:44:40,780 --> 00:44:44,500
that takes us to the the kind of
the nightmare scenarios right

623
00:44:44,620 --> 00:44:47,660
is, is where we're going to go
next and and let let me ask you

624
00:44:47,700 --> 00:44:51,700
this before we get in there.
What kind of events could cause

625
00:44:51,700 --> 00:44:59,420
that, That nightmare?
Scenario one would be the bank

626
00:44:59,420 --> 00:45:04,900
failure she talked about.
That would definitely be one and

627
00:45:04,900 --> 00:45:09,220
and part of this it's a
combination of two things, one

628
00:45:09,420 --> 00:45:12,540
number of banks and the size of
the bank failure.

629
00:45:13,860 --> 00:45:19,370
But it doesn't have to be a lot
to trigger that scenario.

630
00:45:19,410 --> 00:45:23,890
You could have, I mean that's
why the Silicon Valley Bank was

631
00:45:23,890 --> 00:45:28,290
such a big deal.
It was like not huge but

632
00:45:28,290 --> 00:45:35,810
critical funding for the kind of
projects that are very, they're

633
00:45:35,810 --> 00:45:39,730
very critical part of economic
activity.

634
00:45:40,090 --> 00:45:44,410
But it was the number of banks
who were tied to or had

635
00:45:45,100 --> 00:45:50,820
relationships and associations
with them where that it may the

636
00:45:50,820 --> 00:45:52,980
vulnerability.
You know, you talked about the

637
00:45:52,980 --> 00:45:55,540
domino theory before the domino
theory.

638
00:45:56,300 --> 00:46:01,500
So that's where a big enough
bank, but a bank that's placed

639
00:46:01,500 --> 00:46:05,860
in a way that makes others
vulnerable critical.

640
00:46:06,940 --> 00:46:10,600
That's the cut.
Yeah.

641
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:15,000
You know, your small
neighborhood bank is not going

642
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:16,720
to create a problem for the
system.

643
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,160
Wells Fargo That's a system
problem.

644
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:24,440
Right.
So Silicon Valley Bank is not on

645
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:30,040
the same level as Wells Fargo,
but they were big enough to be

646
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:36,720
you know be the largest I think
that are close to it bank

647
00:46:36,720 --> 00:46:42,800
failure and and have an impact
that went far beyond what it

648
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:48,880
looks like on the service.
So you know that's that's one

649
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:54,440
thing that could cause the bank
failures and another stock

650
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:59,480
market could be a trigger that's
the stock market wouldn't cause

651
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:08,070
it, but wholesale collapse in
stocks use that would usually

652
00:47:08,070 --> 00:47:13,470
come after the fact sort of a
recognition economic activity in

653
00:47:13,470 --> 00:47:20,230
1929 have been declining for the
better part of a year before the

654
00:47:20,230 --> 00:47:24,550
stock market crash because the
Fed tightened interest rates

655
00:47:24,950 --> 00:47:30,670
long before the crash itself.
Now if you want to talk about

656
00:47:30,990 --> 00:47:38,020
scenarios, there's one, whatever
the logic or reasoning behind

657
00:47:38,020 --> 00:47:45,260
it, raising interest rates after
a period when everybody was used

658
00:47:45,260 --> 00:47:52,460
to cheap money and free and easy
money and then suddenly holding

659
00:47:52,460 --> 00:47:57,460
back on it will act, your
economic activity really started

660
00:47:57,460 --> 00:48:00,300
to decline and it was declining
on a worldwide basis.

661
00:48:00,500 --> 00:48:07,420
So by then and of the events in
in Europe, people were aware of

662
00:48:07,420 --> 00:48:09,940
that.
So and there was a great deal of

663
00:48:09,940 --> 00:48:14,020
holding your breath, waiting to
see, are we really going to be

664
00:48:14,020 --> 00:48:19,100
able to keep this thing going
then you have the stock.

665
00:48:19,100 --> 00:48:22,740
Market crash that kind of sounds
like today, right?

666
00:48:22,740 --> 00:48:27,580
Because like it's very similar.
Like, I'll scroll through like

667
00:48:27,580 --> 00:48:29,580
every morning.
I have a routine, right?

668
00:48:29,580 --> 00:48:33,420
I go, I I I go into my office.
I fire up the laptop.

669
00:48:34,270 --> 00:48:37,710
And I usually have 10 or 15
minutes to just kind of peruse

670
00:48:38,430 --> 00:48:42,830
the headlines.
And there's holding your breath

671
00:48:42,830 --> 00:48:46,470
seems like a very apt way of
putting it because there's just

672
00:48:46,470 --> 00:48:49,430
talk out there, right?
Are we heading for a recession?

673
00:48:49,430 --> 00:48:53,270
Is this what's coming?
But it just sounded familiar.

674
00:48:54,590 --> 00:48:57,870
Yeah, very much.
And also you know there's

675
00:48:57,870 --> 00:49:00,870
another part to that that this
and this is the one I keep

676
00:49:01,270 --> 00:49:04,680
thinking about.
You know we bounced back from

677
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:08,280
last fall.
If you just look at the action

678
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:14,160
in the stock market and you've
seen things seem to pick up a

679
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:18,520
little bit and people's optimism
improves and and their

680
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:26,640
confidence and and in 1929 to
the spring of 1930 after the

681
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:32,550
stock market crash, things got
back to a level that looks like

682
00:49:32,550 --> 00:49:38,110
maybe you know not not quite the
original highs but maybe they

683
00:49:38,110 --> 00:49:42,870
recovered with 80 to 90% that
that's fine.

684
00:49:42,910 --> 00:49:46,190
And and then people were
starting to hire again

685
00:49:46,230 --> 00:49:49,510
especially the wall of the banks
and the Wall Street, the

686
00:49:49,510 --> 00:49:54,790
brokerage firms who had laid off
in mass right after the crash.

687
00:49:55,350 --> 00:50:00,750
They were starting to hire,
people were getting perk and and

688
00:50:00,750 --> 00:50:07,590
then stocks dropped beginning in
the spring of 1930 and by two

689
00:50:07,590 --> 00:50:13,110
years later had lost 90% of
their value price wise.

690
00:50:14,670 --> 00:50:20,710
So you know, it may get better,
it may get better, but it

691
00:50:20,710 --> 00:50:22,270
doesn't mean it will stay that
way.

692
00:50:23,940 --> 00:50:30,260
So let me ask you this, do you
see, will this be gradual you

693
00:50:30,260 --> 00:50:33,540
think or do you think this, you
know, this will be sudden and

694
00:50:33,540 --> 00:50:42,100
and kind of not really expected?
I don't know and I don't think

695
00:50:42,220 --> 00:50:44,620
most people do.
Anybody really knows.

696
00:50:46,780 --> 00:50:49,180
I'll tell you why.
And it's what we talked about

697
00:50:49,180 --> 00:50:51,860
before.
I don't know how individuals

698
00:50:51,860 --> 00:50:55,860
will respond.
I mean even when you're looking

699
00:50:55,860 --> 00:51:01,660
at it because and and there's
there's there's different

700
00:51:01,660 --> 00:51:05,780
players here that it's like it's
a volatile mix.

701
00:51:06,500 --> 00:51:11,940
So you have to think, right, is
there, is this an accident?

702
00:51:12,780 --> 00:51:17,420
Is it planned?
Is there something, you know

703
00:51:17,420 --> 00:51:23,150
that's going to move us to that
that point regardless as

704
00:51:23,150 --> 00:51:26,710
individuals, it's out of our
hands, no question about it.

705
00:51:27,990 --> 00:51:34,510
But here's, here's, here's where
I see the mix changing as

706
00:51:34,510 --> 00:51:38,590
something happens, let's say
there is a collapse.

707
00:51:41,190 --> 00:51:47,070
The reaction by regulatory
agencies and the government is

708
00:51:47,070 --> 00:51:52,290
more of a concern to me than the
crash itself because what they

709
00:51:52,570 --> 00:51:57,010
do and the policies they put in
place, the actions they take,

710
00:51:57,810 --> 00:52:02,010
will say a lot about whether we
can get through that and get

711
00:52:02,010 --> 00:52:07,650
back on our feet again and get
moving or we can't.

712
00:52:08,170 --> 00:52:10,930
We just simply can't or that
they extend it.

713
00:52:11,170 --> 00:52:13,410
That's what happened in the
depression.

714
00:52:15,770 --> 00:52:20,340
The policies of the government
and the actions they made things

715
00:52:20,340 --> 00:52:24,740
worse.
If you look at it purely on a on

716
00:52:24,740 --> 00:52:32,940
a fundamental economic basis,
jobs program simply take people

717
00:52:32,940 --> 00:52:37,940
who would be working somewhere.
They take money and and labor

718
00:52:37,940 --> 00:52:43,140
away from other projects even if
it is at a lower level.

719
00:52:43,620 --> 00:52:48,260
And all that did is mean that we
got that job done.

720
00:52:48,300 --> 00:52:50,740
You know, there were these
people put to work but think of

721
00:52:50,740 --> 00:52:53,820
what other jobs would have been
done because the economy will

722
00:52:53,820 --> 00:52:59,860
adjust some way to that.
So and then it was the continual

723
00:52:59,860 --> 00:53:02,580
spending on top of it.
You had a deflation.

724
00:53:03,100 --> 00:53:05,380
The dollar was worth more, not
less.

725
00:53:05,380 --> 00:53:08,660
People didn't have as many of
them because you had this

726
00:53:08,660 --> 00:53:12,860
washout of financial values.
The prices all dropped.

727
00:53:13,220 --> 00:53:16,790
So there was there was a
destruction of money.

728
00:53:16,790 --> 00:53:19,710
There wasn't an excess of it, it
was just the opposite.

729
00:53:19,990 --> 00:53:22,510
And that means you could buy
more, because the prices of

730
00:53:22,510 --> 00:53:25,630
everything draw.
Can't get enough of the Mormon

731
00:53:25,630 --> 00:53:28,510
Renegade podcast?
Well, good news, we're on

732
00:53:28,510 --> 00:53:30,910
Patreon and there's three
packages that you can choose

733
00:53:30,910 --> 00:53:33,110
from.
The first one, the Slightly

734
00:53:33,110 --> 00:53:36,350
Rowdy package, allows you to
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735
00:53:36,350 --> 00:53:38,310
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736
00:53:38,790 --> 00:53:41,710
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737
00:53:41,710 --> 00:53:44,630
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738
00:53:44,630 --> 00:53:47,350
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739
00:53:47,870 --> 00:53:51,230
Finally, for those who want to
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740
00:53:51,230 --> 00:53:53,910
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741
00:53:53,910 --> 00:53:57,990
two packages, plus an extra show
where myself and Ben Winfield

742
00:53:58,230 --> 00:54:01,110
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743
00:54:01,110 --> 00:54:03,150
view.
You will also get exclusive

744
00:54:03,150 --> 00:54:06,950
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745
00:54:06,950 --> 00:54:09,430
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746
00:54:09,430 --> 00:54:12,300
mind.
Go to Patreon today and get your

747
00:54:12,300 --> 00:54:15,060
exclusive content.
This episode of the podcast is

748
00:54:15,060 --> 00:54:17,220
brought to you by Deseret
flag.com.

749
00:54:17,540 --> 00:54:19,460
I've said this before and I
really mean it.

750
00:54:19,460 --> 00:54:22,100
Mormonism isn't just a religion,
it's a culture.

751
00:54:22,380 --> 00:54:25,180
As such, it has its own
vernacular and practices, but

752
00:54:25,180 --> 00:54:27,940
also its own symbols.
And those symbols become even

753
00:54:27,940 --> 00:54:30,220
more important and prominent
when you look back into our

754
00:54:30,220 --> 00:54:32,040
history.
Perhaps one of the most

755
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:34,960
recognizable symbols of
Mormonism is the Deseret flag.

756
00:54:35,240 --> 00:54:38,560
This is the flag that I use as
cover art in this podcast.

757
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,960
This was also used for a good
chunk of time during the pioneer

758
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,640
era in Utah.
Now, today we have people who

759
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:47,640
want to replace the existing
Utah flag with some other

760
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:50,680
progressive monstrosity.
Well, I think it's damn past

761
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,360
time that we start pushing back
here a little bit in Utah.

762
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,440
Our friends at Defending Utah
are here to help you with that.

763
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:58,840
Now.
If you go to deseretflag.com,

764
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,560
you can now purchase your own
Deseret State flag.

765
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:05,200
It's time here that we start
making ourselves known and join

766
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:08,000
the resistance against those who
seek to rewrite our state's

767
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,560
history.
Go to deseretflag.com or check

768
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:15,160
out the link in this episode's
page, Show notes and get yours

769
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:20,320
today.
But you had 25% unemployment and

770
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:25,290
what was $1,000,000 might be
only worth 50,000.

771
00:55:25,410 --> 00:55:28,930
You know what your stocks do,
You lose 90% of something.

772
00:55:29,290 --> 00:55:32,370
And there was a lot of leverage
in a lot of these investments.

773
00:55:32,370 --> 00:55:36,850
So people lost everything
because they were buying and as

774
00:55:36,850 --> 00:55:41,330
much as 10% down stocks.
Banks were loaning, people

775
00:55:41,770 --> 00:55:47,290
loaning retail investors 90% of
the price of the stocks they

776
00:55:47,290 --> 00:55:50,730
were buying.
Not at all cases, but that's how

777
00:55:50,770 --> 00:55:55,120
ridiculous the leverage was.
So it doesn't take much to wipe

778
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:59,240
you out, a 10% drop in prices
and you don't have anything.

779
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:06,640
So for a lot of packaged
programs that were sold to

780
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:11,840
retail investors that were
leveraged internally and within

781
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:16,240
the package.
So you know the, the developers

782
00:56:16,240 --> 00:56:18,480
and the promoters made a hell of
a lot of money.

783
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:22,000
But then when it all collapsed,
everybody lost.

784
00:56:23,410 --> 00:56:28,690
So, but what's the reaction
going to be if the Fed goes in

785
00:56:28,930 --> 00:56:32,930
and say and the government says,
we're buying everything we can

786
00:56:32,930 --> 00:56:36,090
get our hands on?
We're going to make sure

787
00:56:36,090 --> 00:56:39,570
everybody gets money, we're and
they do like they did after

788
00:56:39,570 --> 00:56:42,690
COVID, that could destroy the
dollar.

789
00:56:43,210 --> 00:56:48,830
Their reaction to a deflationary
collapse, you got the collapse

790
00:56:48,830 --> 00:56:51,190
itself.
And the collapse is simply the

791
00:56:51,190 --> 00:56:54,910
alternative from hyperinflation.
If they've already printed

792
00:56:54,910 --> 00:56:58,870
enough to carry us to that
directly, we could have

793
00:56:58,870 --> 00:57:03,070
hyperinflation if people respond
that way, because a lot of it

794
00:57:03,070 --> 00:57:07,070
has to do with people's response
to that increase of money.

795
00:57:07,910 --> 00:57:13,350
So you have hyperinflation, but
I think the credit collapse is a

796
00:57:13,350 --> 00:57:17,240
more likely scenario.
So the real risk then, and

797
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:19,680
you're going to say, well,
there's a risk, Do we have

798
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:21,840
hyperinflation?
Do we have a credit collapse and

799
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:25,440
deflation?
Regardless, you're going to get

800
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:29,600
a reaction from the government
and the Federal Reserve, and

801
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:33,880
they're going to do whatever
they think they need to do to

802
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:39,920
restore order, not necessarily
to make things right, to restore

803
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:47,550
order and to protect their own
career position, right.

804
00:57:48,030 --> 00:57:50,830
No politicians going to come out
and say we're not, we're going

805
00:57:50,830 --> 00:57:53,390
to do things the right way now.
They're not.

806
00:57:53,950 --> 00:57:56,750
Right, Okay.
So, so let's look at those two

807
00:57:56,750 --> 00:58:01,470
scenarios, both a credit
collapse and massive deflation

808
00:58:01,470 --> 00:58:03,630
as you as you were talking about
there.

809
00:58:04,910 --> 00:58:08,590
Let's look at both of those.
You know, what does that look

810
00:58:08,590 --> 00:58:11,230
like?
You wake up one morning and what

811
00:58:11,230 --> 00:58:14,790
does?
What does a a a credit collapse

812
00:58:14,790 --> 00:58:20,670
look like for somebody who, like
I just described, They go in,

813
00:58:20,990 --> 00:58:23,830
they fire up their laptop, and
let's just say it's sudden.

814
00:58:24,230 --> 00:58:28,870
What can they expect to see?
What would what would unfold?

815
00:58:31,190 --> 00:58:35,390
You know you just go back to
2008, you wake up one morning

816
00:58:35,390 --> 00:58:41,330
here on Sunday afternoon that
large brokerage firms are no

817
00:58:41,330 --> 00:58:46,050
longer there and other firms
have been swallowed up by a

818
00:58:46,050 --> 00:58:49,410
larger bank like Merrill Lynch
with Bank America.

819
00:58:49,890 --> 00:58:54,050
You've got a couple firms that
were bailed out directly by the

820
00:58:54,050 --> 00:59:01,770
Fed and companies like Allianz
and what was that, not Allianz,

821
00:59:01,770 --> 00:59:05,570
but what was that?
There's that large insure, AIG

822
00:59:06,690 --> 00:59:10,650
and others, and you've got
companies that said this company

823
00:59:11,020 --> 00:59:13,540
needs to stand.
We're going to find a way to

824
00:59:13,540 --> 00:59:16,420
keep them going.
Another company goes under and

825
00:59:16,420 --> 00:59:18,740
takes the hit and they're no
longer there anymore.

826
00:59:19,740 --> 00:59:22,540
You're going to see that kind of
situation.

827
00:59:22,540 --> 00:59:27,420
If you look at what happened to
interest rates and bond prices

828
00:59:27,980 --> 00:59:34,420
on the over a period of two or
three days, there was this huge

829
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:39,640
spike in interest rate and and A
and a corresponding drop in bond

830
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:42,440
prices.
When all that was announced and

831
00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:46,200
then when the Fed announced how
they were policy wise, what they

832
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:50,560
were going to do and all the the
corrections to it, rates went

833
00:59:50,720 --> 00:59:53,560
the other way.
Bond prices went up when the Fed

834
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,400
said we're going to buy
mortgage-backed securities and

835
00:59:56,400 --> 01:00:01,400
stop this bloodletting.
So that's the kind then you

836
01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:03,360
couple that with some bank
failures.

837
01:00:05,350 --> 01:00:09,910
The combination of that, what
I'm concerned about is that it

838
01:00:09,910 --> 01:00:16,110
will overwhelm whatever efforts
the Fed comes up with.

839
01:00:17,070 --> 01:00:26,710
They were able to save the
patient in 2008 from cardiac

840
01:00:26,710 --> 01:00:30,350
arrest.
Resuscitation was there and

841
01:00:30,350 --> 01:00:32,630
everything else.
They stopped the bleeding.

842
01:00:32,630 --> 01:00:35,520
They we got the got them back to
a certain level.

843
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:37,400
I don't, I don't think they can
do it.

844
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:41,720
If we have anything similar to
that, I think it will overwhelm

845
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:45,800
their efforts that we will see a
credit collapse and they we

846
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:50,440
won't see an immediate
restoration, meaning you'll see

847
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:55,800
the price of all financial
assets just like that lose half

848
01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:59,080
their half their value price
wise.

849
01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:00,840
Done.
What is that?

850
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:06,240
I think that on the order of 80%
before it's over though.

851
01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:09,760
What does it look like when you
try to go to the bank and and

852
01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:14,760
withdraw money at that point?
That's difficult to say.

853
01:01:15,000 --> 01:01:19,200
How bad is the banking is?
It is.

854
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:23,400
You know, you had some baking
holidays in the Depression

855
01:01:24,500 --> 01:01:28,060
because it was widespread enough
to create that, that, you know,

856
01:01:28,060 --> 01:01:31,940
people here see about it here.
Now, the other thing is that

857
01:01:32,140 --> 01:01:35,460
people were used to using cash.
We don't anymore.

858
01:01:35,540 --> 01:01:39,180
That's how they get around the
obvious.

859
01:01:40,020 --> 01:01:42,700
It's like, hey, don't even
bother.

860
01:01:42,700 --> 01:01:46,820
They'll just close the doors.
That's part of the movement to

861
01:01:46,820 --> 01:01:52,100
get us all digitized.
They don't want us to have cash,

862
01:01:54,860 --> 01:01:56,900
I don't think.
I mean, that's my feeling.

863
01:01:56,900 --> 01:02:00,860
I don't think it's for.
I don't think it's progression.

864
01:02:00,860 --> 01:02:07,220
I think it's regression to more
power in the hands of

865
01:02:07,740 --> 01:02:09,740
government.
That's my attitude.

866
01:02:09,900 --> 01:02:13,860
I don't, I don't want them
controlling every aspect of my

867
01:02:13,860 --> 01:02:15,820
life.
So that's where we're headed.

868
01:02:16,260 --> 01:02:19,060
Yeah, no, you're right.
That digital dollar thing,

869
01:02:19,060 --> 01:02:23,100
that's spooky because then they
can see what you're spending it

870
01:02:23,100 --> 01:02:26,440
on.
And nothing will make a fat guy

871
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:29,720
like me more angry if I try to
go buy a cheeseburger and they

872
01:02:29,720 --> 01:02:33,680
say I've had my allotment a
cheeseburger, but I don't know

873
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:37,680
how critical it a bit but but it
may be that you buying a

874
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:45,320
cheeseburger at your local fast
food franchise will be not be

875
01:02:45,320 --> 01:02:49,280
affected the same way more
critical things will be.

876
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:56,590
And again, it's hard to say
because it depends on how

877
01:02:56,590 --> 01:03:02,510
dependent people are on aspects
of the system.

878
01:03:02,950 --> 01:03:07,030
I mean even around us now, you
know I I walk around small

879
01:03:07,030 --> 01:03:12,510
businesses are very vulnerable
and even some of the larger

880
01:03:12,510 --> 01:03:15,990
chains that have gone out of
business since COVID, I mean a

881
01:03:15,990 --> 01:03:20,670
shutdown of some kind changes
everything.

882
01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:30,160
So, so the longer that lasts
then it it's like how how deep

883
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:35,200
of a hole do you dig before you
stop digging and then by the

884
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:38,960
time you're done digging, how
long it's going to take to

885
01:03:39,160 --> 01:03:44,280
restore that and bring us back.
I don't think it's going to

886
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:48,200
happen any sooner.
If we have that, I can't see a

887
01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:54,160
restoration that will be any
easier than what happened during

888
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:56,520
the Depression.
I think if anything it'll be

889
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:58,960
worse.
And I think the I think the

890
01:03:58,960 --> 01:04:02,440
reactions of the Fed and the
government will be worse.

891
01:04:03,040 --> 01:04:06,480
The ironic thing is that people
will clamor for that.

892
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:11,920
They will insist that the
government do something and

893
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:15,200
that's when we really have
problems because then they will

894
01:04:15,200 --> 01:04:21,610
start restricting activity and
and promoting.

895
01:04:21,970 --> 01:04:24,690
You know, all through the
Depression, the government

896
01:04:24,690 --> 01:04:27,730
fought the fact that the prices
of things had dropped.

897
01:04:27,810 --> 01:04:31,050
They couldn't.
That was against everything that

898
01:04:31,290 --> 01:04:36,010
the Fed and the banks do.
You can't have deflation because

899
01:04:36,010 --> 01:04:38,290
it destroys the money they've
created.

900
01:04:38,530 --> 01:04:41,570
So they can't collect the
interest on loans.

901
01:04:41,570 --> 01:04:43,290
Loans go belly up.
They can't.

902
01:04:43,610 --> 01:04:48,090
There's it's done and there's
nobody loan to because nobody

903
01:04:48,090 --> 01:04:51,210
qualifies that.
There's no, there's not activity

904
01:04:51,210 --> 01:04:56,410
to support the lending.
So deflation is the worst thing

905
01:04:56,450 --> 01:05:02,130
in the eyes of the banks, to
whatever extent the banks are

906
01:05:02,130 --> 01:05:05,770
tools of others who don't care
about that.

907
01:05:06,460 --> 01:05:09,220
I mean, again, you're looking at
the conspiracy side.

908
01:05:09,660 --> 01:05:13,620
I'm not saying all this to say
that it's one way or the other.

909
01:05:13,660 --> 01:05:16,820
I'm just pointing out the fact
that there there are a number of

910
01:05:16,820 --> 01:05:21,940
possibilities and every one of
them adds a a new wrinkle to the

911
01:05:21,940 --> 01:05:24,900
story.
And so when something happens,

912
01:05:25,940 --> 01:05:30,340
it's hard to say what it will
be, but I don't think it will be

913
01:05:30,340 --> 01:05:32,580
any easier.
I think it will be worse.

914
01:05:33,240 --> 01:05:36,000
So whatever happens will be
worse than anything we've

915
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:39,320
experienced, and it will last
longer than anything we've

916
01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:44,200
experienced in at least two or
three a couple of generations.

917
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:49,080
So that's just a credit
collapse, right?

918
01:05:49,080 --> 01:05:52,680
That's that's we're talking
about a credit, but that's so

919
01:05:52,680 --> 01:05:57,480
critical because everything, all
our activity is, is funded by

920
01:05:57,480 --> 01:06:03,530
credit to where an individual
might be able to do something

921
01:06:03,850 --> 01:06:07,850
but for himself.
But remember the way the Fed

922
01:06:07,850 --> 01:06:11,370
dealt with things in the
depression and the and the

923
01:06:11,370 --> 01:06:15,170
government, they issued
regulations that restricted

924
01:06:15,170 --> 01:06:18,130
people's financial and economic
freedom.

925
01:06:19,210 --> 01:06:21,650
What would you do with that
happen?

926
01:06:22,050 --> 01:06:25,650
It might not matter what you
think you do because there might

927
01:06:25,650 --> 01:06:29,920
be a law against it, because the
Fed and the government do what

928
01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:33,240
they think is in their best
interest, not what's in your

929
01:06:33,240 --> 01:06:38,040
best interest.
No matter what they say about

930
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:41,760
the economy and they're not
working for you, they're working

931
01:06:41,760 --> 01:06:45,360
to preserve their own system,
right?

932
01:06:45,480 --> 01:06:51,240
So I, you know, no government is
going to willingly say we've

933
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:59,120
corrupted society, we've ruined
the economic model and we've

934
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:03,880
destroyed the dollar.
So we're going to do, they're

935
01:07:03,880 --> 01:07:08,320
not going to do that and they're
not going to give up control

936
01:07:08,320 --> 01:07:11,640
that they have over every aspect
of our life.

937
01:07:11,920 --> 01:07:15,560
They're going to spend more
money, create more money, create

938
01:07:15,560 --> 01:07:21,890
more problems and restrict more
activity to the point where they

939
01:07:21,890 --> 01:07:25,570
control and tell you that's what
their goal, that's where they'll

940
01:07:25,570 --> 01:07:31,570
be moved.
So what does what does massive

941
01:07:31,570 --> 01:07:40,370
deflation look like that would
be like?

942
01:07:40,370 --> 01:07:45,010
Again, it'll be like the
depression expect the prices for

943
01:07:45,010 --> 01:07:50,560
everything would drop by
anywhere from 50 to 90% and stay

944
01:07:50,560 --> 01:07:55,560
there.
Meaning and and again it depends

945
01:07:55,560 --> 01:08:00,000
on where the money is.
But if you own assets, a house,

946
01:08:00,000 --> 01:08:06,560
if you own a car, if you own
stocks or bonds or anything

947
01:08:06,560 --> 01:08:11,440
that's denominated in dollars
and you have a deflation, that

948
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:18,319
asset is going to be worth less
in terms of the number of

949
01:08:18,319 --> 01:08:24,170
dollars and the prices of the
things that you pay for will

950
01:08:24,410 --> 01:08:30,649
drop correspondingly but not
proportionately so.

951
01:08:32,370 --> 01:08:34,850
And that's because the
governments and the and the

952
01:08:34,850 --> 01:08:38,970
banks will resist that.
So if you fight it, if the

953
01:08:38,970 --> 01:08:45,810
stocks drop 90% and the economy
craters and bond prices drop,

954
01:08:46,689 --> 01:08:53,720
and you have bankruptcies, bank
failures, unemployment, and you

955
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:57,680
go to the store to buy your
groceries, and you'll find that

956
01:08:58,080 --> 01:09:01,960
when the groceries are there,
they might very well be cheaper.

957
01:09:02,399 --> 01:09:05,200
They could be more, but that
would be more because of

958
01:09:05,200 --> 01:09:09,080
disruptions in the supply chain,
not because of purchasing power.

959
01:09:09,399 --> 01:09:13,200
But if you want to sell your
services to somebody, there

960
01:09:13,200 --> 01:09:17,120
would be huge downward pressure
on wages.

961
01:09:17,740 --> 01:09:19,300
That's what the government
fought.

962
01:09:19,500 --> 01:09:23,700
They tried to support wages.
They tried to get people to hire

963
01:09:23,700 --> 01:09:25,819
people back that they had laid
off.

964
01:09:26,220 --> 01:09:28,180
Well, the system's got to
cleanse itself.

965
01:09:28,580 --> 01:09:32,180
If you put all that pressure
back in there, you're simply

966
01:09:32,180 --> 01:09:36,100
fighting the inevitable.
And that's what made it last so

967
01:09:36,100 --> 01:09:39,939
long, because you couldn't purge
all of the ills that had

968
01:09:39,939 --> 01:09:43,700
accumulated because you were
trying to stuff the same stuff

969
01:09:43,700 --> 01:09:46,540
back in again.
Why did you get sick?

970
01:09:46,960 --> 01:09:49,560
Well, because I took the wrong
stuff.

971
01:09:50,040 --> 01:09:53,080
Well, here's the wrong stuff
again, so you can get better.

972
01:09:53,359 --> 01:09:56,080
We're going to spend more money
and we're going to put more

973
01:09:56,080 --> 01:09:58,880
controls on.
You know, we're going to create

974
01:09:58,880 --> 01:10:04,160
more debt, and we're going to
buy stuff that the economy says

975
01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:07,280
we don't need, but we're going
to buy it because that guy's out

976
01:10:07,280 --> 01:10:09,240
of work, and then it'll give him
a job.

977
01:10:09,720 --> 01:10:12,600
But then all the other things
that needed to happen don't

978
01:10:12,600 --> 01:10:17,160
happen, and you get stuck and
you go nowhere.

979
01:10:18,440 --> 01:10:20,800
And so it lasted longer than it
needed to.

980
01:10:20,800 --> 01:10:24,080
It would have been severe, but
it wouldn't have lasted as long.

981
01:10:24,120 --> 01:10:26,200
It would have been back on the
road.

982
01:10:28,120 --> 01:10:32,840
Those are those are horrible
scenarios and and here's here's

983
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:35,560
the unfortunate part though I'm
I'm not sure there's any

984
01:10:35,560 --> 01:10:39,240
avoiding that an iceberg like
that.

985
01:10:39,240 --> 01:10:42,440
I say that and and and the Fed
has pulled out.

986
01:10:42,440 --> 01:10:44,400
I don't want to say to their
credit because I.

987
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:47,640
I don't think it's healthy what
they did, and I might be wrong

988
01:10:47,640 --> 01:10:51,520
there, but they pulled a few
rabbits out of their hat from

989
01:10:51,520 --> 01:10:54,440
time to time to to avoid certain
things.

990
01:10:54,920 --> 01:10:57,880
But at some point, doesn't the
piper just have to be paid?

991
01:10:59,440 --> 01:11:02,480
I feel that way.
I I don't see how not.

992
01:11:02,480 --> 01:11:06,560
I mean, that's what we learn.
You can't.

993
01:11:08,560 --> 01:11:10,200
The accounts have to be
balanced.

994
01:11:11,140 --> 01:11:14,420
I mean, I basic accounting, if
you don't balance those

995
01:11:14,420 --> 01:11:17,340
accounts, you don't balance your
checkbook.

996
01:11:17,620 --> 01:11:20,980
I mean sooner or later it
catches up to you.

997
01:11:20,980 --> 01:11:22,780
You either have the money or you
don't.

998
01:11:23,220 --> 01:11:26,020
And is the money that you have
credible?

999
01:11:26,020 --> 01:11:28,340
Is it, is it worthy of
acceptance?

1000
01:11:29,060 --> 01:11:35,660
And is, is, is a house that's
worth $1,000,000 today and was

1001
01:11:35,660 --> 01:11:45,410
worth 100,015 years ago.
Is that realistic, you know or

1002
01:11:45,410 --> 01:11:48,970
20?
I I I mean when you look at the

1003
01:11:48,970 --> 01:11:53,810
prices of certain things
relative to the effects of the

1004
01:11:53,810 --> 01:11:56,210
inflation that we've
experienced, they're totally

1005
01:11:56,210 --> 01:12:00,010
disproportionate.
I'm not saying it's wrong to

1006
01:12:00,010 --> 01:12:03,450
have bought them.
What I'm saying is that they

1007
01:12:03,450 --> 01:12:12,070
were funded with money that
wasn't there because most people

1008
01:12:12,070 --> 01:12:14,790
bought them with mortgages.
Now you've got the bigger, a

1009
01:12:14,790 --> 01:12:18,750
bigger portion of houses being
bought with cash by the ultra

1010
01:12:18,750 --> 01:12:22,510
wealthy.
Well that's not the majority of

1011
01:12:23,230 --> 01:12:27,230
the public.
You know, it's not like and so

1012
01:12:29,030 --> 01:12:33,790
but you're you're again, even if
you take an aspect of the credit

1013
01:12:33,790 --> 01:12:38,350
markets and say here's a
reasonable basis of fundamental

1014
01:12:40,140 --> 01:12:44,060
economics and finances and it
and it works and it's not

1015
01:12:44,220 --> 01:12:47,060
totally outlandish.
It's still part of a bigger

1016
01:12:47,060 --> 01:12:51,140
system.
You know you can do everything

1017
01:12:51,140 --> 01:12:55,900
right in the kitchen of of a
ship that's sinking and you

1018
01:12:56,060 --> 01:12:58,180
everything's spotless and
perfect.

1019
01:12:58,460 --> 01:13:01,220
It's not going to keep you from
sinking with the ship.

1020
01:13:01,900 --> 01:13:07,180
You know, the galley, the galley
is not going to save you, Okay,

1021
01:13:07,420 --> 01:13:10,790
It's not.
You know, I heard that reference

1022
01:13:10,790 --> 01:13:13,110
man and I and I realized it was
catastrophe.

1023
01:13:13,110 --> 01:13:16,430
I'm only saying it, but it's
like as somebody made the

1024
01:13:16,430 --> 01:13:19,670
reference once when they were
talking about all of the actions

1025
01:13:19,670 --> 01:13:25,830
surrounding government's
attempts to make things right.

1026
01:13:26,470 --> 01:13:32,430
And and the reference was is
somewhat like sweeping the deck

1027
01:13:32,710 --> 01:13:37,820
and straightening the deck
chairs of the Titanic when when

1028
01:13:37,860 --> 01:13:42,500
that ship went down, it didn't
matter, everything went with it.

1029
01:13:42,540 --> 01:13:44,540
And that's what we're talking
about here.

1030
01:13:44,740 --> 01:13:52,540
When we're successful, we are so
at a point now where everything

1031
01:13:52,900 --> 01:13:58,580
goes when it when something
happens or you know, the rising

1032
01:13:58,580 --> 01:14:02,300
tide lifts all boats, you know,
we see that happen so often.

1033
01:14:04,410 --> 01:14:08,650
But you'll see more spotty
indications that there's

1034
01:14:08,650 --> 01:14:15,250
something wrong.
You might see divergences in in

1035
01:14:15,250 --> 01:14:22,130
stock averages, you know of
certain stocks, more exploratory

1036
01:14:22,130 --> 01:14:26,770
developmental stocks, research
oriented stocks.

1037
01:14:27,490 --> 01:14:31,320
Those be the ones you think
would be the most vulnerable and

1038
01:14:31,320 --> 01:14:34,760
you may see other stocks that do
well, but the broader average

1039
01:14:34,760 --> 01:14:38,960
would still probably decline.
Eventually everything would be

1040
01:14:38,960 --> 01:14:45,160
affected.
So it's again, it's another,

1041
01:14:45,360 --> 01:14:50,720
it's a possibility, it's an
alternative, but I think it is

1042
01:14:50,800 --> 01:14:55,880
just as likely to see that as
there is to see hyperinflation.

1043
01:14:57,680 --> 01:15:01,760
And and I don't think that the
the odds are any greater that

1044
01:15:01,760 --> 01:15:08,400
they can pull a rabbit out of
the hat and make it work for a

1045
01:15:08,400 --> 01:15:10,280
while.
I, I, I you know that they're

1046
01:15:10,280 --> 01:15:14,560
all possible, but I think it's a
bigger risk that we're going to

1047
01:15:14,560 --> 01:15:17,800
face that cataclysmic event and
have to deal with it.

1048
01:15:18,160 --> 01:15:22,120
And it's going to be worse than
anybody's ever anticipated and

1049
01:15:22,120 --> 01:15:25,420
it's going to last longer.
And that's where I would say

1050
01:15:25,420 --> 01:15:28,980
that the probability lies.
Got you, Got you.

1051
01:15:30,100 --> 01:15:31,860
All right.
So we went over those 3

1052
01:15:31,860 --> 01:15:37,260
scenarios and and I'm glad we
did because I I feel like having

1053
01:15:37,260 --> 01:15:43,220
those on the table can kind of
set, set the be a placeholder

1054
01:15:43,220 --> 01:15:46,860
now for for this next part of
the of our discussion.

1055
01:15:47,260 --> 01:15:52,380
And you brought this up to me a
few weeks back and we were

1056
01:15:52,380 --> 01:15:56,340
talking about this.
That there's there's a service

1057
01:15:56,340 --> 01:16:02,220
you provide that I find is
probably really lacking in most

1058
01:16:02,220 --> 01:16:06,780
financial services, right?
And let's get one thing out of

1059
01:16:06,780 --> 01:16:09,380
the way right now.
Kelsey is not going to tell you

1060
01:16:09,380 --> 01:16:13,780
what stock to buy, correct?
Correct.

1061
01:16:14,620 --> 01:16:20,060
That's not what, yeah, that's
not what this service is, what

1062
01:16:20,060 --> 01:16:23,210
this service is.
And and Kelsey jump in here

1063
01:16:23,330 --> 01:16:28,890
anytime if I get this wrong is
you would come to Kelsey and you

1064
01:16:28,890 --> 01:16:32,330
would you would kind of have a
list of questions and you'd say,

1065
01:16:32,330 --> 01:16:36,530
look I'm worried about this.
What are some things I can do to

1066
01:16:36,530 --> 01:16:39,490
kind of mitigate my personal
exposure?

1067
01:16:40,130 --> 01:16:47,570
Is that is that everything I do,
My writing is all geared to tell

1068
01:16:48,010 --> 01:16:51,350
the story from a different
perspective.

1069
01:16:51,790 --> 01:16:59,470
I want people to hear about gold
and things about inflation and

1070
01:17:00,110 --> 01:17:07,910
the Federal Reserve in a way
that I believe is more credible

1071
01:17:09,750 --> 01:17:15,500
and more fundamentally correct.
But when I think of people out

1072
01:17:15,500 --> 01:17:18,780
there and I see what they're
reading and what they're

1073
01:17:18,780 --> 01:17:24,900
hearing, I don't feel like that
it's realistic to a large

1074
01:17:24,900 --> 01:17:29,140
degree.
So when you plan financially, we

1075
01:17:29,140 --> 01:17:34,580
all plan based on the assumption
that the system's fine.

1076
01:17:35,260 --> 01:17:43,500
It's what I do you know I have
to you know plan fundamentally

1077
01:17:44,730 --> 01:17:49,130
using correct principles and I
practiced you know what my

1078
01:17:49,410 --> 01:17:53,810
planner or my broker advisor
told me and so you know I'm

1079
01:17:53,810 --> 01:17:56,970
saving regularly.
I'm investing regularly and I'm

1080
01:17:57,290 --> 01:18:01,210
I'm buying stocks over the long
term so that all those things

1081
01:18:01,210 --> 01:18:04,170
are fine.
It's that's that's not an issue.

1082
01:18:04,170 --> 01:18:07,250
I I'm not.
It isn't that I might not when I

1083
01:18:07,250 --> 01:18:10,650
sit down with somebody say okay
wait a second you're you

1084
01:18:10,650 --> 01:18:13,370
mentioned all these things.
Here's one thing you might want

1085
01:18:13,370 --> 01:18:16,970
to be not that.
That's why we're doing any kind

1086
01:18:16,970 --> 01:18:20,650
of consultation.
I want people to stop and take a

1087
01:18:20,650 --> 01:18:25,970
second look at things and say
look if you really think things

1088
01:18:25,970 --> 01:18:31,530
might get bad, do you think that
what you're doing is going to

1089
01:18:31,530 --> 01:18:35,850
work?
And is there much or anything

1090
01:18:35,850 --> 01:18:41,770
you can do to protect yourself
or at least minimize the risk

1091
01:18:42,260 --> 01:18:46,300
And maybe it's just a matter of
being prepared mentally because

1092
01:18:46,940 --> 01:18:52,100
you know, when we were, I
remember one time talking about

1093
01:18:52,100 --> 01:18:58,260
something years ago to somebody
and and here's the way it is and

1094
01:18:59,460 --> 01:19:04,540
expressing the safety of the of
the transaction and all of this.

1095
01:19:04,580 --> 01:19:07,740
And they said, well, what if the
Russians bombed the depository?

1096
01:19:08,420 --> 01:19:11,230
I mean, it's like, OK, you know,
there are certain things you can

1097
01:19:11,230 --> 01:19:14,830
plan for and other things that
you just have to say, I don't

1098
01:19:14,830 --> 01:19:17,430
know.
I don't know what would happen.

1099
01:19:17,990 --> 01:19:23,150
But now we're talking about
threats to the system that

1100
01:19:23,150 --> 01:19:26,030
affect almost everything
everybody is doing.

1101
01:19:27,110 --> 01:19:30,910
I don't think you'll find people
out there who are thinking about

1102
01:19:30,910 --> 01:19:36,420
the fact that they own a home
and then they also own two or

1103
01:19:36,420 --> 01:19:40,660
three other homes that they
think are going to protect them

1104
01:19:40,660 --> 01:19:44,580
because the dollar continues to
lose value, which is fine.

1105
01:19:45,180 --> 01:19:49,700
But I had clients a couple
decades ago who were buying a

1106
01:19:49,700 --> 01:19:54,380
lot of real estate at one time
and they got overextended.

1107
01:19:54,380 --> 01:19:59,740
Things went in the tank boom.
And, you know, it's horrible.

1108
01:19:59,980 --> 01:20:03,100
You know, the the shorter term
can ruin everything you're

1109
01:20:03,100 --> 01:20:06,060
doing.
I just want to be able to bring

1110
01:20:06,060 --> 01:20:09,620
some of these things we're
talking about to the table for

1111
01:20:09,620 --> 01:20:12,580
people and maybe it's just
questions that they have.

1112
01:20:12,580 --> 01:20:18,220
And I say I'd like to talk to
someone about these things and I

1113
01:20:18,220 --> 01:20:21,580
want to talk to some of them
that's not, doesn't have a

1114
01:20:21,780 --> 01:20:23,980
vested interest in what I do
with my money.

1115
01:20:24,940 --> 01:20:27,100
Do you want to?
I don't want to manage your

1116
01:20:27,100 --> 01:20:33,020
money, but I'd be happy to offer
some time and answer some

1117
01:20:33,020 --> 01:20:38,000
questions and explain some
things that maybe they need an

1118
01:20:38,000 --> 01:20:40,640
answer to.
But I would definitely be

1119
01:20:40,640 --> 01:20:45,080
looking at it in the context of
the discussions we have had on

1120
01:20:45,080 --> 01:20:48,200
these podcasts.
So, so let me let me ask you

1121
01:20:48,200 --> 01:20:51,720
this if someone wants to reach
out to you, what kind of

1122
01:20:51,720 --> 01:20:54,680
questions do they need to have
ready for you, right.

1123
01:20:54,680 --> 01:21:00,490
Because it's, you know what?
You know, they should, they

1124
01:21:00,490 --> 01:21:03,370
should pretty well have some
questions in their own mind.

1125
01:21:03,410 --> 01:21:07,810
I mean either some questions or
goals or something that says

1126
01:21:07,810 --> 01:21:11,770
okay, I mean what's the basis
for me to to try and talk to

1127
01:21:11,770 --> 01:21:15,330
you.
I'm not going to just take on a

1128
01:21:15,930 --> 01:21:19,210
a full-fledged review of things.
I have to know what your

1129
01:21:19,210 --> 01:21:21,210
concerns are.
I have to know what somebody

1130
01:21:21,210 --> 01:21:24,610
really is thinking.
You know, somebody might say to

1131
01:21:24,610 --> 01:21:30,630
me, look Kelsey, I don't know
any own any gold and you've

1132
01:21:30,630 --> 01:21:33,550
talked about it.
I hear all these things about

1133
01:21:33,550 --> 01:21:37,910
it.
Explain it to me should you know

1134
01:21:37,910 --> 01:21:40,990
what's realistic and and you
know, so we're looking at it in

1135
01:21:40,990 --> 01:21:44,550
general or maybe they want to
know more about some of these

1136
01:21:44,550 --> 01:21:47,790
scenarios we've talked about.
How would that impact them?

1137
01:21:48,150 --> 01:21:51,270
What if you're a small business
owner, you know, we we talked

1138
01:21:51,270 --> 01:21:55,310
about that.
Nobody knows for sure, but you

1139
01:21:55,310 --> 01:21:58,790
need to walk through things in a
way that somebody could and say,

1140
01:21:58,790 --> 01:22:02,150
look, if you woke like you said,
you wake up one morning and you

1141
01:22:02,510 --> 01:22:05,270
what if you wake up one morning
and you turn on your computer

1142
01:22:05,270 --> 01:22:10,150
and it there's nothing.
I know that sounds extreme, but

1143
01:22:11,070 --> 01:22:14,670
there's there's there's not too
many possibilities we shouldn't

1144
01:22:14,670 --> 01:22:20,990
at least consider and and so
part of that is you get a little

1145
01:22:20,990 --> 01:22:24,890
more conservative.
It isn't that you stop doing one

1146
01:22:24,890 --> 01:22:28,610
thing is that you and this is
something that I always told my

1147
01:22:28,610 --> 01:22:32,130
clients when I was a full
service financial planner years

1148
01:22:32,130 --> 01:22:39,130
ago, nobody makes mistakes by
doing the wrong thing.

1149
01:22:39,530 --> 01:22:44,170
They make mistakes by doing
something to the exclusion of

1150
01:22:44,170 --> 01:22:53,550
everything else.
So that being said, K, do you

1151
01:22:53,550 --> 01:22:57,030
wipe everything out that you've
been doing for 20 years and look

1152
01:22:57,030 --> 01:23:00,350
ahead and say, Oh my gosh, I'm
just going to bury my head in

1153
01:23:00,350 --> 01:23:03,750
the sand and and forget, no,
we're not saying that.

1154
01:23:04,190 --> 01:23:09,030
What we're saying is be open to
the possibility that things

1155
01:23:09,030 --> 01:23:11,070
might not happen the way you
think.

1156
01:23:12,190 --> 01:23:15,590
What if the Fed doesn't loses,
really does lose control?

1157
01:23:15,590 --> 01:23:18,150
Maybe they have, Maybe you
haven't been told the truth.

1158
01:23:18,550 --> 01:23:21,670
Maybe things won't get better,
but they will get worse.

1159
01:23:21,670 --> 01:23:23,270
What will you do if they get
worse?

1160
01:23:23,550 --> 01:23:26,110
Some of it's very practical.
You know, we talked about

1161
01:23:26,110 --> 01:23:29,990
certain extremes, but maybe it's
just waking up to the fact that,

1162
01:23:30,550 --> 01:23:36,510
you know, if stocks and bonds
lose 50% of their value and stay

1163
01:23:36,510 --> 01:23:40,950
there for the next 10 years and
unemployment goes to 20%, will

1164
01:23:40,950 --> 01:23:43,470
you be affected And how will you
be affected?

1165
01:23:44,030 --> 01:23:47,030
And and part of it is just
starting to think more.

1166
01:23:47,230 --> 01:23:49,950
I'm not, I'm not trying to
looking at the standpoint of

1167
01:23:49,950 --> 01:23:52,270
saying I'm going to answer all
your questions and here's

1168
01:23:52,270 --> 01:23:57,390
exactly what you need to do.
I'm saying, hey, here's some

1169
01:23:57,390 --> 01:24:00,390
warning flags.
Here's some things you need to

1170
01:24:00,390 --> 01:24:03,230
be aware of.
There's construction up ahead.

1171
01:24:04,110 --> 01:24:07,700
You might get delayed and it
might be a much longer delay.

1172
01:24:08,900 --> 01:24:17,340
So you know, it's very general
and macro oriented, but it will

1173
01:24:17,340 --> 01:24:21,340
relate to our conversations, it
will relate to gold, it relate

1174
01:24:21,340 --> 01:24:24,740
to inflation, the Federal
Reserve, that sort of thing.

1175
01:24:25,660 --> 01:24:28,460
Tell you what, I just had an
idea and and if you're not

1176
01:24:28,460 --> 01:24:31,140
prepared for this, this is fine,
but.

1177
01:24:32,240 --> 01:24:35,440
How about this?
How about we just role play this

1178
01:24:35,440 --> 01:24:37,720
a little bit?
How about I come to you with

1179
01:24:37,720 --> 01:24:42,560
some questions and and I'll make
up a scenario of who I am and

1180
01:24:42,560 --> 01:24:46,680
ask you some questions and that
way people can kind of see what

1181
01:24:46,680 --> 01:24:48,160
to expect.
Are you down for that?

1182
01:24:49,280 --> 01:24:54,360
That sounds good to me.
Okay Kelsey, I am a small

1183
01:24:54,360 --> 01:24:57,080
business owner.
I own a survey company that's

1184
01:24:57,080 --> 01:25:00,240
got 10 people.
I love every one of my

1185
01:25:00,240 --> 01:25:02,400
employees.
They're like family to me.

1186
01:25:03,160 --> 01:25:07,480
I'm I'm seeing some stuff that
looks kind of shaky, right I the

1187
01:25:07,560 --> 01:25:11,200
the the market doesn't
necessarily fill me with

1188
01:25:11,200 --> 01:25:12,480
confidence.
At the moment.

1189
01:25:12,480 --> 01:25:17,240
There seems to be wild swings.
My goal is I want to be able to.

1190
01:25:18,100 --> 01:25:22,180
To if possible keep as many
people as I can employ because I

1191
01:25:22,180 --> 01:25:25,940
I like my people I I've I've
groomed them I've trained them I

1192
01:25:25,940 --> 01:25:29,620
I want to make sure that I I can
do the Best Buy them I can.

1193
01:25:30,580 --> 01:25:34,540
That said, with everything out
there what what are some

1194
01:25:34,540 --> 01:25:38,620
strategies, what are some to to
weather some economic storms

1195
01:25:38,620 --> 01:25:44,740
coming whether that is you know
a a you know really kind of just

1196
01:25:44,740 --> 01:25:48,760
a downturn with with.
Inflation and maybe a slow down

1197
01:25:48,760 --> 01:25:53,360
and work and then also what what
what do I do if if you know

1198
01:25:53,840 --> 01:25:56,960
heaven forbid you know there's a
credit collapse what what are

1199
01:25:56,960 --> 01:26:01,120
some things first I should look
for and then what can I do to to

1200
01:26:01,120 --> 01:26:06,440
kind of protect the business and
then ultimately my family what's

1201
01:26:06,560 --> 01:26:09,200
I would look at it this way
first of all you need to

1202
01:26:09,480 --> 01:26:14,640
separate your business from your
personal from at least initially

1203
01:26:14,640 --> 01:26:18,600
and say okay what's the bigger
concern to you is, is is it your

1204
01:26:18,600 --> 01:26:25,600
business small business or is it
your overall situation your home

1205
01:26:25,600 --> 01:26:28,960
your family your long under term
plans.

1206
01:26:29,520 --> 01:26:33,520
How big of a part is the small
business of that?

1207
01:26:33,840 --> 01:26:37,360
That's your company.
But how big of a part is it?

1208
01:26:37,360 --> 01:26:42,610
Is it?
Is it a tool for earning income?

1209
01:26:43,410 --> 01:26:46,890
And then you have your plan
around yourself and your home

1210
01:26:46,890 --> 01:26:52,050
and your family or is it pretty
much your life?

1211
01:26:52,570 --> 01:26:57,290
I mean, you know, some people,
their business morphs into this

1212
01:26:58,970 --> 01:27:03,770
mini conglomerate sometimes or
it gets expands in a way that it

1213
01:27:03,770 --> 01:27:06,410
becomes everything.
That's everything that they have

1214
01:27:06,410 --> 01:27:09,220
their money tied up in it.
Some people do that with

1215
01:27:09,220 --> 01:27:13,540
employers.
So what I say to you is how

1216
01:27:13,540 --> 01:27:18,660
dependent are you on this?
If suddenly you had to lay off

1217
01:27:18,660 --> 01:27:22,700
everybody, what is that?
How does that affect you

1218
01:27:22,700 --> 01:27:26,180
personally?
So you know, some of this is

1219
01:27:26,180 --> 01:27:29,180
emotional, some of the, you
know, the degree of emotions

1220
01:27:29,180 --> 01:27:32,900
involved, wanting to do the best
by them is great.

1221
01:27:33,060 --> 01:27:35,380
That's the kind of employer you
want to work for.

1222
01:27:35,950 --> 01:27:38,670
They he cares about me and and
that's great.

1223
01:27:38,830 --> 01:27:41,030
So we can look at some things
that way.

1224
01:27:41,430 --> 01:27:46,830
But you know again part of this
is there's an unknown.

1225
01:27:47,310 --> 01:27:50,310
Is it likely that you can
continue to work and do these

1226
01:27:50,310 --> 01:27:52,750
things well for the foreseeable
future?

1227
01:27:52,750 --> 01:27:55,230
There is.
So how do you protect yourself?

1228
01:27:55,230 --> 01:27:57,950
What do what are you trying to
predict, protect?

1229
01:27:58,470 --> 01:28:01,950
Do you want to stash somewhere
that you can come in and say,

1230
01:28:01,950 --> 01:28:04,590
look, I can keep you on the
payroll and pay you because I

1231
01:28:04,590 --> 01:28:07,510
had put some money away?
That's an aspect.

1232
01:28:07,750 --> 01:28:11,670
But then what?
How much do you want to commit?

1233
01:28:11,910 --> 01:28:16,910
And then does that interfere
with your own personal goals and

1234
01:28:16,910 --> 01:28:20,230
things?
So and then the next thing is in

1235
01:28:20,230 --> 01:28:23,910
the context of the big picture,
what are we trying to protect?

1236
01:28:23,910 --> 01:28:31,580
If someone says you know if, if
they have an asset base that

1237
01:28:31,580 --> 01:28:34,780
they're concerned about, then we
look at that and say okay, how

1238
01:28:34,780 --> 01:28:38,340
do, how does some of these
scenarios affect somebody's

1239
01:28:38,740 --> 01:28:41,980
stock portfolio?
How does it affect, you know

1240
01:28:41,980 --> 01:28:45,740
what if this happens, what's
going to be there and what are

1241
01:28:45,740 --> 01:28:50,220
you doing in other areas?
Do you have some compensation?

1242
01:28:50,220 --> 01:28:53,100
Does somebody, you know, one of
the biggest things I find and

1243
01:28:53,100 --> 01:28:57,110
that's either way we're headed.
And I say, you know, and I said

1244
01:28:57,110 --> 01:29:00,750
this for years, just have some
cash on hand.

1245
01:29:01,430 --> 01:29:03,550
So you never know what's going
to happen.

1246
01:29:03,670 --> 01:29:05,750
You never know when there's
going to be an emergency.

1247
01:29:06,230 --> 01:29:11,830
And you know you can't depend on
everything else being available

1248
01:29:11,830 --> 01:29:14,550
or working.
So have a little cash on hand

1249
01:29:14,550 --> 01:29:17,550
and know that you can put your
hands on it and you need some

1250
01:29:17,550 --> 01:29:21,470
reserves in the bank and and in
checking and stuff like that.

1251
01:29:21,470 --> 01:29:24,840
I mean those are general
principles, but again if there's

1252
01:29:24,840 --> 01:29:29,160
a bank failure, you have any
cash on hand, if the banks are

1253
01:29:29,160 --> 01:29:32,320
closed even temporarily and you
have an emergency or what if if

1254
01:29:32,320 --> 01:29:34,640
you get stuck out on the freeway
and somebody comes along to

1255
01:29:34,640 --> 01:29:36,880
help, you want to be able to
offer something.

1256
01:29:37,120 --> 01:29:40,960
I you know those are sort, they
don't.

1257
01:29:41,600 --> 01:29:44,920
Those are common sense practical
things to me, but a lot of

1258
01:29:44,920 --> 01:29:47,960
people don't think about them.
And then again, when you put it

1259
01:29:48,160 --> 01:29:52,240
related to the rest of this K,
how much gold should you own?

1260
01:29:53,320 --> 01:29:56,010
What form of gold should you
own?

1261
01:29:56,130 --> 01:29:59,850
Are you a speculator or do you
just want to know that you own

1262
01:29:59,890 --> 01:30:04,850
real money and you know and know
that you can touch it at some

1263
01:30:04,850 --> 01:30:10,610
point if you want to.
It's safe if there's something

1264
01:30:10,610 --> 01:30:17,650
that happens.
And can this, can it be

1265
01:30:18,130 --> 01:30:22,170
minimized in terms of the
effects for you if you take some

1266
01:30:22,170 --> 01:30:25,030
action now?
Or are you at the mercy like

1267
01:30:25,030 --> 01:30:28,430
everyone else is?
Sometimes it's knowing and

1268
01:30:28,430 --> 01:30:33,070
understanding the relationships
without knowing the answers,

1269
01:30:33,190 --> 01:30:36,710
just so you know that the
possibility is there.

1270
01:30:36,910 --> 01:30:40,110
You start thinking a little
differently than what you would

1271
01:30:40,110 --> 01:30:43,550
and then you're not surprised
the same way and maybe you can

1272
01:30:43,550 --> 01:30:49,270
handle or deal with it better.
So and you know if if if it's

1273
01:30:49,270 --> 01:30:52,270
someone who has enough employees
that they want to make it

1274
01:30:52,270 --> 01:30:58,190
worthwhile for them, it's like,
hey, come in and and talk to

1275
01:30:58,190 --> 01:31:00,070
your employees.
You know, maybe you say, look

1276
01:31:00,070 --> 01:31:05,910
I've got, I've got 10 or 15
people would love to have you

1277
01:31:05,910 --> 01:31:09,350
come and talk with them as a
group and and do something like,

1278
01:31:09,350 --> 01:31:13,720
you know, those kind of things.
I'm not really looking to speak

1279
01:31:13,720 --> 01:31:16,560
before a large audience.
I I like working with

1280
01:31:16,560 --> 01:31:19,480
individuals and talking
one-on-one.

1281
01:31:19,640 --> 01:31:23,600
But a small group of people,
yeah, I'd love to answer

1282
01:31:23,600 --> 01:31:27,640
questions that way that you can
get a group, somebody you have a

1283
01:31:27,640 --> 01:31:30,880
question, give me one question,
everybody submit a question.

1284
01:31:31,000 --> 01:31:33,640
Here's 10 questions.
I've got 10 people come in and

1285
01:31:33,640 --> 01:31:36,200
talk to us.
Just answer our questions.

1286
01:31:38,240 --> 01:31:39,440
I don't know.
Does that make sense?

1287
01:31:39,440 --> 01:31:41,980
There's no.
That that does make sense.

1288
01:31:41,980 --> 01:31:46,420
Yep.
So have some cash on hand, make

1289
01:31:46,420 --> 01:31:50,820
sure I'm compartmentalizing.
Well, find out what's most

1290
01:31:50,820 --> 01:31:54,100
important to me, is it my own
wellbeing and my own family,

1291
01:31:54,100 --> 01:31:59,420
which it would be.
And then then you know start

1292
01:31:59,420 --> 01:32:05,540
looking at ways of of mitigating
that right and and see you know

1293
01:32:05,540 --> 01:32:11,410
again somebody might come
initially and say here's what I

1294
01:32:11,410 --> 01:32:14,610
want to know and it might be
totally different what you and I

1295
01:32:14,610 --> 01:32:18,730
just did based on what their
concern and questions are.

1296
01:32:19,610 --> 01:32:27,170
So I can I think it's a just
more a matter of perspective.

1297
01:32:27,770 --> 01:32:31,690
You know, I'm going to talk to
them a little differently than

1298
01:32:31,690 --> 01:32:36,170
somebody else would because you
know it.

1299
01:32:37,880 --> 01:32:43,480
The idea is to help them see
things differently than they

1300
01:32:43,480 --> 01:32:49,720
might otherwise, and be able to
confidently pursue what they're

1301
01:32:49,720 --> 01:32:55,920
doing without being shocked if
something doesn't work out quite

1302
01:32:55,920 --> 01:32:59,440
the way they had thought because
they're aware of some other

1303
01:32:59,440 --> 01:33:02,000
things.
Well, and and that's one of the

1304
01:33:02,040 --> 01:33:04,600
the things that I've enjoyed
about our conversations and I'm

1305
01:33:04,600 --> 01:33:08,450
super excited.
For for some of the listeners to

1306
01:33:08,450 --> 01:33:12,850
maybe take advantage of is
talking to you has changed my

1307
01:33:12,850 --> 01:33:14,730
perspective on a few things,
right.

1308
01:33:15,290 --> 01:33:18,450
I thought I understood a few
things and after talking to you

1309
01:33:18,450 --> 01:33:20,770
I realized well I I may have
missed the boat here.

1310
01:33:20,770 --> 01:33:26,450
I may not have fact factored in
X or Y and and that changes you

1311
01:33:26,450 --> 01:33:29,370
know some of the even some of
the assumptions and even some of

1312
01:33:29,370 --> 01:33:35,210
the questions I have and so I
find getting a perspective.

1313
01:33:35,720 --> 01:33:39,200
A a different perspective on
those things will will often

1314
01:33:39,200 --> 01:33:42,760
raise new questions right will
will make me think of of of

1315
01:33:42,760 --> 01:33:46,920
other things and and I think
that's the genius of the system

1316
01:33:47,280 --> 01:33:50,640
of of the not system the the
genius of the service that

1317
01:33:50,640 --> 01:33:54,680
you're you're offering here is
that this this gives people the

1318
01:33:54,680 --> 01:33:57,760
kind of reexamine what they know
or what they think they know.

1319
01:33:58,240 --> 01:34:03,160
And once that perspective has
been changed, it may change how

1320
01:34:03,160 --> 01:34:05,240
it is you decide you want to go
forward.

1321
01:34:05,580 --> 01:34:08,540
In in doing just some of those
things we talked about how to

1322
01:34:08,900 --> 01:34:12,260
protect yourself a little more,
how to mitigate certain risks

1323
01:34:12,500 --> 01:34:15,940
and what you can do going
forward so that that change in

1324
01:34:15,940 --> 01:34:20,500
perspective is so important.
And you know certainly I'm

1325
01:34:20,500 --> 01:34:24,980
guilty of this as well.
You sometimes you you read

1326
01:34:24,980 --> 01:34:28,340
certain things or you hear
certain things and you glom onto

1327
01:34:28,340 --> 01:34:29,820
that, right.
And and you're like, well,

1328
01:34:29,820 --> 01:34:33,910
that's the way it's got to be.
But that's not necessarily the

1329
01:34:33,910 --> 01:34:35,830
case.
So that change in perspective is

1330
01:34:35,830 --> 01:34:42,110
super healthy for because I know
a ton of guys you know a lot of

1331
01:34:42,110 --> 01:34:44,830
folks in my audience are are
private business owners.

1332
01:34:45,870 --> 01:34:50,350
So and and often times as I've
talked to him just one-on-one,

1333
01:34:50,350 --> 01:34:54,110
just kind of shooting the
breeze, if you will, they'll

1334
01:34:54,190 --> 01:34:56,750
they'll tell me some of their
concerns and I'm like, I don't

1335
01:34:56,750 --> 01:35:00,190
know that's why I talked to
Kelsey but.

1336
01:35:02,890 --> 01:35:06,250
So, so a lot of the, the, the
folks in this audience would be

1337
01:35:06,250 --> 01:35:09,970
coming from that perspective of
of small business owners, how do

1338
01:35:09,970 --> 01:35:13,890
I protect my family and then my
business, those sorts of things.

1339
01:35:13,890 --> 01:35:16,970
So I think the service you're
offering is going to be

1340
01:35:16,970 --> 01:35:20,370
absolutely incredible.
What what are you looking to

1341
01:35:20,370 --> 01:35:28,170
charge per hour on this Kelsey
my my basic fee is 250 an hour,

1342
01:35:28,750 --> 01:35:32,710
would normally have a four hour
minimum but that's assuming that

1343
01:35:33,230 --> 01:35:37,030
you know I'm going in somewhere
somebody it it would be a little

1344
01:35:37,030 --> 01:35:45,230
more detailed and and intensive.
But for what we're doing here, I

1345
01:35:45,230 --> 01:35:49,150
want to bring it down to two
hours as a minimum of $500.

1346
01:35:49,470 --> 01:35:55,030
And it basically is again, it's
it's time you're it's like

1347
01:35:55,030 --> 01:35:58,500
you're hiring me for two hours.
What do you want to know?

1348
01:35:59,940 --> 01:36:04,820
And and what but I wanted, I
want you know that means that

1349
01:36:04,820 --> 01:36:09,540
someone needs to think about
this beforehand because I'm I'm

1350
01:36:09,540 --> 01:36:12,980
going to respond to an
individual according to the

1351
01:36:12,980 --> 01:36:18,580
individual's concerns and needs.
It's not a universal thing where

1352
01:36:18,580 --> 01:36:20,660
I just go in and talk about
stuff.

1353
01:36:20,660 --> 01:36:22,540
I'm not.
I want it to be personal.

1354
01:36:22,540 --> 01:36:25,420
I want it to be something that's
worthwhile to someone.

1355
01:36:25,960 --> 01:36:29,960
And again, they're the ones
that'll determine you know how

1356
01:36:29,960 --> 01:36:33,440
it's applicable or not.
And I may get requests or or

1357
01:36:33,440 --> 01:36:35,960
questions and then say, look, I
don't know whether I can help

1358
01:36:35,960 --> 01:36:38,280
you.
You know, I I I've turned people

1359
01:36:38,280 --> 01:36:42,880
away for stuff before because I
wanted to be realistic for

1360
01:36:42,880 --> 01:36:44,840
someone.
I don't want someone to say,

1361
01:36:44,840 --> 01:36:48,280
well I didn't really get what I
thought I would or I I'm going

1362
01:36:48,280 --> 01:36:52,090
to say what do you want tell me
what you're thinking about what

1363
01:36:52,090 --> 01:36:53,930
you'd like.
I'll tell you whether it's

1364
01:36:53,930 --> 01:36:57,850
realistic, you know and say hey
let's do this we'll schedule it.

1365
01:36:59,010 --> 01:37:03,330
You know and and you know there
are there are different the the

1366
01:37:03,330 --> 01:37:06,330
amount of Pete number whether if
we're just talking about

1367
01:37:06,330 --> 01:37:12,520
individuals on A1 on one basis 2
hours, 250 an hour $500 that's

1368
01:37:12,600 --> 01:37:14,760
that's it.
That doesn't mean it can't be we

1369
01:37:14,760 --> 01:37:17,120
can't do more.
It's just that I want it to be

1370
01:37:17,120 --> 01:37:20,360
reasonable enough that somebody
can say okay I'm I'm willing to

1371
01:37:20,360 --> 01:37:24,920
do that but you need to have
some ideas in your own head some

1372
01:37:24,920 --> 01:37:29,760
thoughts about what you want
what do you what do you want to

1373
01:37:29,760 --> 01:37:32,480
hear.
I'm not going to tell you just

1374
01:37:32,480 --> 01:37:35,520
what you want to hear, but I
need to have some way to respond

1375
01:37:35,520 --> 01:37:41,410
to you, realistic, that fits and
is appropriate for your

1376
01:37:41,410 --> 01:37:43,730
situation.
What are your concerns?

1377
01:37:43,850 --> 01:37:47,690
What do you want to do?
And then I can, you know, answer

1378
01:37:47,690 --> 01:37:49,450
them the way we've talked about
here.

1379
01:37:50,290 --> 01:37:53,090
Whatever, whatever will work.
Yeah.

1380
01:37:53,530 --> 01:37:56,970
So, so imagine these
conversations Kelsey and I and I

1381
01:37:56,970 --> 01:38:02,210
have had and I think we're up to
four or five now, but imagine

1382
01:38:02,210 --> 01:38:05,290
these conversations but tailored
more to your.

1383
01:38:06,420 --> 01:38:10,500
To your situation so that we're
not what we're still going to,

1384
01:38:10,500 --> 01:38:13,180
you know, Kelsey still going to
talk on the macro, but it's

1385
01:38:13,180 --> 01:38:17,420
going to be macro tailored to
your specific situation and he's

1386
01:38:17,420 --> 01:38:20,740
going to and there's a certain,
oh, go ahead, I'm sorry, there's

1387
01:38:20,940 --> 01:38:25,620
a certain amount of detail that
may be there too that won't be

1388
01:38:25,620 --> 01:38:28,860
in our discussions because we
don't have, we're not talking

1389
01:38:28,860 --> 01:38:33,750
about a personal situation.
So it may take more time, you

1390
01:38:33,750 --> 01:38:37,750
know, maybe a little more detail
that'll work for them.

1391
01:38:38,350 --> 01:38:40,230
Right.
Absolutely.

1392
01:38:40,630 --> 01:38:47,430
And and you know, let me ask you
this question in in in your

1393
01:38:47,430 --> 01:38:52,150
ideal case, when someone was
finished talking to you, how

1394
01:38:52,150 --> 01:38:54,190
what, what would they walk away
with?

1395
01:38:57,550 --> 01:39:00,270
I want them to walk away saying
thank you.

1396
01:39:00,510 --> 01:39:06,500
I've always wondered how how
that works or I I'm looking for

1397
01:39:06,980 --> 01:39:10,980
something that when they read an
article, when they hear

1398
01:39:11,260 --> 01:39:16,060
something from from an advisor
or somebody else talk, how does

1399
01:39:16,060 --> 01:39:20,140
it really relate to them?
You know it could be a common

1400
01:39:20,700 --> 01:39:24,460
theme or something like that.
It could be something from a

1401
01:39:24,460 --> 01:39:28,420
personal standpoint but just
being able to have them feel

1402
01:39:28,420 --> 01:39:34,260
like okay this makes sense now I
now I understand it or and and

1403
01:39:34,500 --> 01:39:39,940
very similar to what you have
said is that was it worthwhile

1404
01:39:39,980 --> 01:39:43,980
Do I have a better feeling about
things you know do I do I feel

1405
01:39:43,980 --> 01:39:49,860
more comfortable making a
decision now because of what

1406
01:39:49,860 --> 01:39:57,940
we've talked about just the idea
that I've maybe I've kicked open

1407
01:39:57,940 --> 01:40:00,420
a door that nobody looked behind
before.

1408
01:40:01,720 --> 01:40:04,600
And now they have a better feel
for where they are and where

1409
01:40:04,600 --> 01:40:06,440
they're going.
Perfect.

1410
01:40:06,880 --> 01:40:09,840
So Kelsey, if they want to get a
hold of you for this, how do

1411
01:40:09,840 --> 01:40:16,080
they do that?
The the most direct is just to

1412
01:40:16,160 --> 01:40:24,200
send me an e-mail at
a.williams@kelseywilliamsgold.com

1413
01:40:25,120 --> 01:40:30,410
or go to my website
kelseywilliamsgold.com and

1414
01:40:30,450 --> 01:40:37,890
there's a little paragraph with
a link about my services and

1415
01:40:37,890 --> 01:40:42,010
they could just click on that,
whether it's interviews,

1416
01:40:42,010 --> 01:40:44,890
consulting, whatever it is.
There's a little paragraph and

1417
01:40:44,890 --> 01:40:49,330
there's a link and it goes right
to my e-mail from my website and

1418
01:40:49,330 --> 01:40:52,090
that's that's probably the most
the best route.

1419
01:40:52,850 --> 01:40:56,530
It's highlighted and just do
that and ask some questions or

1420
01:40:56,530 --> 01:40:59,920
if they want to talk, they can.
That's the best way.

1421
01:40:59,920 --> 01:41:03,840
Don't try to put a ton of stuff
in an e-mail because makes it

1422
01:41:03,840 --> 01:41:07,200
more difficult.
Just put something simple in

1423
01:41:07,200 --> 01:41:10,560
there and we'll go from there.
Perfect.

1424
01:41:10,600 --> 01:41:13,440
And if they want to read your
stuff first, where do they read

1425
01:41:13,440 --> 01:41:16,720
that app?
Oh yeah, Kelsey Williams

1426
01:41:16,720 --> 01:41:20,760
gold.com.
It's called Kelsey's Gold Facts,

1427
01:41:20,760 --> 01:41:24,720
but the URL is Kelsey Williams
gold.com.

1428
01:41:25,540 --> 01:41:31,660
All my articles are on that site
and then there's, you know, my

1429
01:41:31,660 --> 01:41:37,460
books are there, and all the
links to different pages that I

1430
01:41:37,460 --> 01:41:39,980
post on and some of the other
things I've done.

1431
01:41:39,980 --> 01:41:43,660
So all of it's on the website.
That'll give them a pretty good

1432
01:41:43,660 --> 01:41:45,620
overview and they might find
answers there.

1433
01:41:45,700 --> 01:41:48,820
Just going there and reading a
couple articles might have a big

1434
01:41:48,820 --> 01:41:54,180
impact either answering some
questions or forgetting some

1435
01:41:54,180 --> 01:41:55,320
others.
Right.

1436
01:41:56,120 --> 01:42:00,040
You know, and and I'll say this,
I've been very careful on this

1437
01:42:00,040 --> 01:42:07,040
podcast never to put a a product
or a service or anything else

1438
01:42:07,040 --> 01:42:11,440
out there that I didn't
absolutely believe in because

1439
01:42:11,440 --> 01:42:14,720
quite frankly, I've developed a
relationship with my audience

1440
01:42:14,720 --> 01:42:16,760
and I value that relationship
highly.

1441
01:42:17,400 --> 01:42:21,560
And but this is one that I can
get behind wholeheartedly and in

1442
01:42:21,560 --> 01:42:23,640
in some ways, Kelsey's idea
here.

1443
01:42:24,860 --> 01:42:29,820
Which has been an answer to my
prayers in some way, because so

1444
01:42:29,820 --> 01:42:32,580
often I've wanted people to be
able to have the kind of

1445
01:42:32,580 --> 01:42:36,700
conversations with Kelsey that I
have because I I feel like his

1446
01:42:36,700 --> 01:42:39,140
perspective is needed more now
than ever.

1447
01:42:39,540 --> 01:42:44,540
And it is worthwhile because
it's going to give you the tools

1448
01:42:44,540 --> 01:42:48,120
to navigate.
And I know this sounds nuts, but

1449
01:42:48,120 --> 01:42:50,680
I really do love my audience.
I really do.

1450
01:42:50,720 --> 01:42:54,040
And and it's weird and I know it
sounds kind of woo, woo or

1451
01:42:54,040 --> 01:42:56,640
whatever, but there's certain
times I can feel the audience

1452
01:42:57,080 --> 01:43:00,960
and I I want them to be
protected as much as possible.

1453
01:43:00,960 --> 01:43:04,960
And that's why I'm offering this
on on on on the podcast is

1454
01:43:04,960 --> 01:43:10,480
because I I feel like it's it's
needed and I'm just going to

1455
01:43:10,480 --> 01:43:12,480
shoot you straight.
I think something wicked is

1456
01:43:12,480 --> 01:43:16,760
coming our way.
Economically, I don't think we

1457
01:43:16,760 --> 01:43:20,640
can keep doing what we've been
doing and not bear the

1458
01:43:20,640 --> 01:43:24,200
repercussions.
And I would hate to have to lay

1459
01:43:24,200 --> 01:43:26,840
my head down at night and say,
is there anything else I could

1460
01:43:26,840 --> 01:43:30,400
have done for the folks who
listen to this podcast to maybe

1461
01:43:30,400 --> 01:43:33,320
help protect them?
And so when you came to approach

1462
01:43:33,320 --> 01:43:38,080
me with this idea, I was 100% on
board and I would just encourage

1463
01:43:38,080 --> 01:43:40,240
everybody to go read Kelsey
stuff.

1464
01:43:40,970 --> 01:43:43,530
You can sign up to get
notifications, if I'm not

1465
01:43:43,530 --> 01:43:46,970
mistaken, Every time a new
article comes out, get with

1466
01:43:46,970 --> 01:43:50,650
Kelsey, get your questions
answered and you'll be able to

1467
01:43:50,650 --> 01:43:54,250
make better, more well informed
decisions.

1468
01:43:54,570 --> 01:43:57,570
He's not going to tell you what
to do, which is something that I

1469
01:43:57,570 --> 01:44:00,690
find value in, because
everybody's situation is going

1470
01:44:00,690 --> 01:44:04,090
to be unique, but you're going
to be able to get a different

1471
01:44:04,090 --> 01:44:06,760
perspective on things.
You're going to be able to have

1472
01:44:06,760 --> 01:44:10,360
the kind of conversations Kelsey
and I have had here more Taylor

1473
01:44:10,360 --> 01:44:11,880
to you.
And then you could make that a

1474
01:44:11,880 --> 01:44:15,640
matter of prayer, talk to your
to your spouse and then figure

1475
01:44:15,640 --> 01:44:18,280
out what the best way of going
forward is.

1476
01:44:18,280 --> 01:44:23,520
So please reach out to him.
It's it's well worth the money.

1477
01:44:25,120 --> 01:44:30,160
If if tomorrow, you know if if
someone was to ask you if you

1478
01:44:30,160 --> 01:44:35,940
could spend $500 and protect.
You know, or let me rephrase

1479
01:44:35,940 --> 01:44:40,540
that you can spend $500 and get
the perspective you need to help

1480
01:44:41,420 --> 01:44:44,700
guide yourself through some
rough economic times and

1481
01:44:44,700 --> 01:44:46,260
preserve some of what you've
built.

1482
01:44:46,260 --> 01:44:50,740
I think that's well worth it.
So Kelsey, anything else before

1483
01:44:50,740 --> 01:44:55,180
we wrap up?
Man, I'm good with things as

1484
01:44:55,180 --> 01:44:58,500
usual.
It's been a lot of fun, very

1485
01:44:58,500 --> 01:45:02,340
enjoyable experience and looking
forward to the next time.

1486
01:45:03,170 --> 01:45:05,450
Yep, Yep, absolutely.
All right.

1487
01:45:05,690 --> 01:45:07,370
Bye, everybody.
Thanks, Kelsey.

1488
01:45:31,530 --> 01:45:34,130
You're listening to the Mormon
Renegade podcast.