Episode #36: Something Wicked This Way Comes, The Unfiltered Truth About Our Economy W/Kelsey Williams

0:05 Look from the very first episode this podcast. I told you that I would always tell you the truth is, I understand it doing that sometimes means having to say things that are unpopular or even unpleasant, this is going to be one of those episodes. Now for about the last six months, I have seen massive instability in the economy and I've had just an overall gut feeling that Something Wicked, This Way Comes. Now, when I get those gut feelings, I reach out. Two people who are way smarter than me about the topics. I am having those feelings about. It's for this reason that I brought Kelsey Williams back on the podcast. Now, you're going to get straight talk and straight up truth about where the economy is and spoiler alert it ain't great. We then go into an in-depth history of the financial system of the United States, including the birth and role of the fed and the Bretton Woods Summit.

0:53 And what that all means in historical context, Kelsey then moves on to tell us what he thinks may be coming our way and What we can do to help, whether that coming economic storm. Now you're going to get in-depth history and Analysis on this episode about the economy that you normally don't see on major news networks and from political and economic pundits. And that's next on this episode of the Mormon Renegade podcast, So, I just want to take a moment to thank you. The Listener, when I started this podcast I wasn't sure if anyone would really listen. Now to my surprise, this thing has taken on a life of its own and that's all due to you the listener, spending your time here with me, and it means a great deal to me now, as a husband and father, I'm keenly aware of how important time is. It feels like there's just never enough of it. So when you are spending your time here, listening to this podcast, I feel a responsibility to never waste your time in that Spirit as this podcast has grown. I feel like I need to do you the listener. Justice, I want to continue to produce good content and upgrade the audio quality that takes better equipment and better software and that all takes money. Now, I've tried to advertise, but you'd be surprised. There's not a lot of people want to advertise on a Mormon fundamentalist podcast.

2:08 I know surprising right now if you want to help support the podcast, you can do that. One of two ways. The first is go over to Mormon Renegade.com and hit the Donate tab there. You can make a one-time donation or you can go ahead. Set it up to be a monthly recurring donation your choice entirely now. Option number two because I'm a capitalist. If you want to head on over to Mormon Renegade.com, click on the store button. You're going to find that. We've got some new swag out, we got some T-shirts, we have a tote, we have cell phone cases, water bottles, coffee cups. We got a bunch of stuff in more. It's going to be on the way. So if you feel like, that's something you could do again, head on over to Mormon Renegade and check all that stuff out.

2:52 If you're not in that position to do. So I completely understand. We're all squeezed right now with high gas prices and high inflation. So even if you can't please keep listening and maybe keep the podcast in your prayers, so we can continue to grow produce. Good content and better audio quality. Thank you. Your listing to the Mormon Renegade podcast. Well Kelsey, welcome back man.

3:43 Good to be here. How are you doing Dave? I'm good man. Have you been you know going to school having fun not writing? Yeah, I know man, and I'll tell you what, speaking of writing high. So enjoy getting your stuff when it pops up on my feed because it just breaks everything down. So well, you just have a gift for being able to Explain these Concepts these Concepts and these principles and kind of deciphering where we're at and what's going on in a way that even a guy like me can understand so good on you for being able to do that? Well, I appreciate that. So for the listeners you're going to get a very holistic view of what's happening right now. With the economy that I don't think you're going to get very many in very many other places and that's because in a podcast we have time to We break down what's going on so where you might normally just get, you know, five or ten minutes tops on your evening news or on your favorite opinion, Channel or whatever the case is, you're not going to get the the entire breakdown of what's Happening Here. And as Kelsey, and I talked about what it is, we want to do with this episode.

5:02 We really did want to take a holistic view of what's happening, and we kind of touched on a little bit and the other two episodes. Yes. But not like what? I think we're about to do now so I'm super excited to do this. So Kelsey let's just start here. Where are we right now? What is happening as we speak with the economy. Alright, we are about eight or nine months, maybe 10 months into an effort by the Federal Reserve to coerce interest rates up to a More normalized Level, that's what is going on. And the reason I say coerce is because they don't really control interest rates.

5:50 Interest rates are a function of bond prices. Happens in the bond market, they can influence more directly short-term rates, and they have control over one particular show short-term rate, that's the discount rate, which is what people here. Being reported the FED raised the discount rate by 75 basis points. But most people probably don't understand what the discount rate I was just going to say, I know we touched on a little bit in one of our other episodes. Yes. But I think it'd be good to go back and talk about what the discount rate is. It's also been called the discount window, right? Yeah, the discount rate is the rate that member banks pay to borrow money directly from the Federal Reserve. And that's why when the FED raises that raid or lowers it right now, by raising it, they are putting a damper on any motivation that a banquet have to borrow money because the rates higher that, that sort of subdues things if you will, hopefully, they're there their ideas by doing that. Um, the effects of inflation will subside. Okay.

7:17 That's that's their purpose and goal and doing it, all right? And there's a lot of risk involved and we'll get into those, but there are risks involved with doing it. The other thing that's important for people to recognize is that they're not doing anything to actually fight inflation. They're simply making the cost of the credit. That's made available more expensive. So remember when we have all of the bailouts in the emergency money and the previous crises a couple of years ago and 2008 when the FED made all that money available, It came directly from the FED to member banks, primary Banks.

8:09 And then other member banks, they could borrow money at abnormally Chi braids, and then they turn around and Loan it, and that was supposed to increase activity and kind of re-inflate. What happened? You know, are all of its activity. So they're encouraging when they do that borrowing and lending and other words, more of the same things that God is into this mess anyway. Okay. They expand the supply of money and credit but they do that continuously. Anyway, by raising the interest rates, they hope indirectly that they can put a damper on some of that activity which Each won't fuel the higher prices were seeing. Now if I'm not mistaken and correct me if I'm wrong here, I'm trying to remember back, you know, back to about that time. I'm under the understanding as well that when those bailouts happened, I believe it was Polson who was the acting Fed chair at the time.

9:13 Correct me if I'm wrong there, but and I think he basically kind of strong-armed every Bank into taking the money. Is that correct? There was some of that their that their influence was look, you need to do this, we've got to get this under control, so take the money well and even when they took it, it was cheap enough. They just sat on it, right? They didn't loan it out right away because they were concerned about it. They didn't. And it was, it was so cheap. It was like, well, why should we bother? You know, we can, we can do something with it to Certify borrowing with it. But why add more risk?

9:56 And we'll just hang on to it for a while. In the other thing I'd heard is that basically, it was one of those things where they were pressuring everybody to take it. So it would re-instill confidence back into the market. So, the idea was that all the bank's took it, you didn't know which banks were the unhealthiest, which would essentially in theory, create this idea of well, you know, We really don't know which banks are strong and which ones are weak. So they were hoping it would calm down. Some of that market volatility. Is that right? I believe that's correct. And but you re you've raised a point that I think is just as important there is another interest rate called the FED funds rate. And the FED funds rate is the rate even though it's called the FED funds rate is the rate that member banks charge each other to borrow money on an overnight basis. And the reason that they need to is because they have to be in Balance according to the FED regulations, if you've got a billion dollars in deposits on hand, those billion dollars are a liability, but you can loan out 900 million of that or 90%. If you fall below that 10%, Reserve ratio, you're in violation of the FED rags.

11:23 And so, you've got to borrow money to bring yourself in balance and so on an overnight basis, the banks will borrow money from it. Each other, someone might have a surplus over that minimal amount and they'll loan money. So but it's a market-driven according to conditions, expectations, someone, some Your institution might be having more trouble, it might have other implications. Well, that changes the FED funds rate all the time. It's a market-oriented rate between and among the member banks, but the banks in order to get themselves into balance each night also have the option of borrowing directly from the fed and that's where the discount rate comes in because they'll pay what the discount rate is. Everything the FED is doing right now is geared to raising rates to a more normal level because they are protecting the dollar.

12:32 And the reason is, if they can get rates up where they were before, was they were providing all this money, very cheaply and that inflation because that's when inflation is Was showing up in terms of a dollar which continued to lose purchasing power at a very, very sharp rate and the threat of losing all viability and a crew run on the dollar complete collapse. If you will, that is where they were. If they kept feeding money into the system at very cheap rates that were just feeding an addiction that already.

13:13 Is it existed? They're trying to protect the Dollar by raising rates but there are risks involved of doing in that way. They're not actually fighting inflation. Their plant for trying to keep the dollar from Accelerating its decline or collapsing depending on where you know how far along that path. We are I got you now with that discount window that used to 0, must be a sign of Shame if a bank had to go to that. Right? Exactly. And you know why is because by the time they got to that point, it meant the FED would know that they were out of balance right?

13:59 If they could stay in the circle. With the other Banks but it's sort, it was sort of a red alarm thing which so makes his wage. Second, how come you just didn't you, you know the FED will be thinking? Why didn't they just do this in the in the FED funds market with the other Banks? Well, they probably couldn't get the money so they had to go to the fed. The FED will give it to him, buddy, tips them off. So then the FED would probably introduced its stringent requirements, so you got to get back in line at. Banquets not know. And then, you know, The publicity associated with it. So that's why they would reluctantly not want to go directly to the FED in order to counter that the Feds that will then what we've got to do is we've got to make it available cheap enough so they'll all want to go here come to the and and and that a bank who does really need. It isn't going to shy away if others are doing it because it won't be a tip-off.

15:00 There's no need for me to go. Oh, to you as as my sugar? Daddy, mr. Fad, if I can do this on my own and that's where the shame came in. Gotcha. Gotcha. And because as I read up on that just a little bit, it almost sounded like a payday loan for banks. Right? Where where it was like they were like oh crap we're out of money, we got bills. Do where do we go? And they went to the pay, you know, the payday loan place essentially is what the Discount window that's that's the origin of the fed. The Fed was designed to be an organization that promoted and encouraged an environment that would allow member banks to create and lend money. And when they got in trouble, the FED would be there to help provide some kind of safety net.

15:58 So if you had everybody under the same umbrella, It was either to easier to work with when there was a problem, then the previous histories which where you know they were pretty severe. They didn't last as long but Banks were independent. So this way they could argue that what we can, we have better control over the system. This way God that was the argument given but not that. That necessarily is the Functioning reason behind the feds origin, but that's what they proposed and I definitely want to go to the feds origin and covered Bretton Woods and all the important stuff here because sometimes we got to know where we've been in order to know where we're going or where we're at. But before we get there, you you had said something that that caught my attention.

16:49 You said that the FED is attempting to bring interest rates up to a normal level. So I'm going to ask probably a little bit of a loaded question here. What's a normal level for interest rates? There's been some studies done, you go back. and, you know, even if you look back over the past couple hundred years at interest rates or a period of time, they were always think of mortgage rates where we're mortgage rates. You know, when I bought my first house, a mortgage rate was a percent that was standard. At one time. They went up considerably higher and then they came back down to a more normal level. But that was generally around 8%. And again, the mortgage rate is always a derivative or function of more other interest rates, like treasury rates, And that sort of thing.

17:45 And that's the standard. Most people look at their though, there's usually a margin marginal increase or difference between what it costs to borrow money versus the treasury, what the treasury pays by issuing treasury bonds, but that rate is going to be up closer and I'd say broad range between four and eight percent. What has happened for the past 40 years ever since Paul Walker was the head of the FED? Is it rates of Decline and they never stop these? We got to a point where maybe, you know, they had, of course, been very high in the 80s, but that was because of Market forces, and because of the effects of inflation people in want to loan money or borrow loan money for 30 years to somebody, even the US government, if inflation, which was running at 12 percent or more Was going to continue and erode, the value of their money that was tied up, earning a percent 9 percent. So interest rates on treasuries long-term bonds, whereas like a 15 or 20 year bond.

19:00 They were up around 15 percent and that was unusually high, but it was concurrent with high inflation. What the FED did in the US government together back when Clinton was President has started emphasizing shorter term borrowing? And that said, well, it'll make it cheaper. The problem is the cheaper didn't make the quality of the credit any better and it continued to drive rates down, pushed encourage people bought Into it. You know the bond market is like a vigilante or a policeman if the by if people don't like where rates are they don't buy the bonds and if the demand is there for the bonds that drives the rates down and say it's like a seesaw, that's all it is. It's inverse rates are going up.

20:00 The value of the bonds is dropping, that's what's happening now. And that's the problem though is we're so used to cheaper. Money. That even if rates returned on a on their own basis, to more normal levels, it would still cause a lot of damage and destruction, which I think has to be something we experience before, we can actually get better. That's what I was afraid. You were going to say, so, What? Let me ask you this right now and this is just me driving back and forth to work every day. You know, there's there's Billboards up that, you know, have like the the you know what, what a rate is right now to like buy a home and it's floating just under seven. I think it's 675 if I'm not mistaken. so, if a normal rate is 8, And we're almost at seven now with really no signs that the rate increases have slowed inflation. Where do they have to be in order for the FED to have accomplished its goal of slowing down inflation? Well there's a couple of issues here. The first is we're talking about the effects of inflation because that's what the higher prices

21:32 are the inflation, is the Fed expanding the supply of money and credit without knowing what that's going to lead to. They've already created the inflation and they're not backing off on that necessarily. It's happening all the time because of fractional Reserve Banking and everything else. So inflation is not stopping and nobody's trying to stop the inflation but they have raised. The price. So, the credit that they make available is cheaper. I mean, it's more expensive now than it was, but it's like if you're an alcoholic and you're addicted, And somebody raises the price of your booze, but still offers it to you.

22:17 What do you do? I mean, you have to have it you know people don't stop buying gasoline and and so what you know, there's a point where people at this point a normal interest rate level Is not necessarily going to change a lot. It could but it will be difficult because the effects of going to that level are having a horrendous effect on current asset prices, because bond prices have dropped over 30, 30, and value in the last two years.

22:59 If you bought a bond paid a hundred thousand dollars for it. This is Long-term bonds. Even if even a US Treasury over the past couple of years that treasury bond. The long-term is now worth 30% less than you paid for it. Because the interest rate you locked in Is much cheaper than what they're paying now. So it's not worth the same. So what happens is the bond price drops to a level that the interest rate being paid. Correlates to what today's market interest rates are. And that's the way the bond market works all the time. The problem here is that the higher interest rates go, whether they're forced or whether they move up on their own, trying to get them to a normal level is creating Havoc with all asset prices.

23:59 It means everybody that's used to cheaper, prices can afford the higher prices, or they have Investments. That were made betting on lower rates or rate staying low. So they're getting killed that way. so you have all asset prices dropping reflecting, the fact that money is more expensive than it was, and we're used to paying a lot less and we can't So you have the potential for bankruptcies credit collapse. A lot of things including bank failures. Geez, um Let me let me ask you this and if you don't want to answer it, I totally understand.

24:50 Could some of this be intentional? I've been doing a little bit of reading your stuff. Some some stuff from like the 70s on economy. Could some of this be intentional in the form of demand destruction on certain items it could be and I guess that's what is like what you've got first. First, the Spectre that rates are increasing and all these problems are getting worse and then you've got the possibility that it's all part of a design, a long-term design and plan, which I believe it very well could be.

25:36 But it's very important to recognize is that the problem we're in is the result of what the FED has done in the way. It's acted for over 100 years, the effects of inflation are always unpredictable. We don't know the extent of the damage that's done by expanding the supply of money and credit by making it available cheaply until we see it show up in the loss in purchasing power of the dollar and that's when we can say, okay? What you're seeing in terms of inflation on CPI reported or producer prices on a month-to-month basis. Those have been reported every month for decades. It's an issue now because it's higher than it was, but it's still not as bad as it was in that 80s, but we're so used to it being so cheap.

26:34 That's having a big impact because we are built into our own activities, the lower prices. And what that means is that now people can't afford to carry the same amount of debt, that's why people are priced out of the markets, who would ordinarily not be or why people simply say, Say, well, I'm not going to pay that much to borrow it. I'll pay cat if they have it or whatever or they won't. So it is having an effect because we are fueled by credit the world economy is fueled on credit. So credit is more expensive. That means it costs more.

27:19 And and we're fueled on credit to the point. And this we went over this about I think the point 100% point was about a year or two ago, it cost more money to produce a unit of productivity now than you get in. Other words, it used to be the ratio kept going up. So 50% cost and you get Your unit of credit and then it was 80 percent for each additional dollar of productivity, 80 cents, yelled yielded, one dollar of productivity. Now it costs more than one dollar of credit debt to produce a dollar of productivity so it costs more now to yield it.

28:09 So we are bankrupt. In a very clear technical way. If it costs is like a company says, hey we need a new employee. How are we going to pay for that? It's going to cost 100,000 a year. Well if they're going to borrow money it's going to cost them 110,000. I mean that's that's what it comes down to. We wouldn't it doesn't make sense to say you would do that. But that's where we are on the basis of all the credit that's been expended and made available at the rates and now is the rates go up. And the credits more expensive is more expensive to maintain the credit that exists.

28:53 It's more expensive to borrow new money. Jeez, bankrupts probably a pretty good word for it. What, what is preventing the rest of the world from just saying, you know what? Let's let's save that question, actually. Let's let I'll go back to that, when, after we've talked about how we got here. I think we've painted a pretty good picture of where we're at, which it sounds like, we're kind of teetering on the brink. Yeah, I think we are. Let's talk about. Let's next talk about how we got here. Let's talk about, you know, where the FED came from, what the FED is. And then after that, lets I want to pick your brain and see if we can't.

29:41 Maybe project out a little bit on maybe things, we should keep our eyes out for That sounds good to me. All right. So real quick, let's let's define what the FED is because and I know we've touched on a little bit before, but I feel like it's worthwhile in painting, this kind of holistic. Picture of where what's going on? How would you best describe the FED to someone who just hears the word fed on the on their local news or, you know, Fox News or CNN or wherever it is? They're looking you hear the word fed and you automatically think it's a government organization.

30:21 Is that the case? No, it is not fed. Federal Reserve is very simply put a Bankers Bank And the origin of the FED is steeped in controversy and it does involve politicians at the time and international Bankers from Europe and the us although most of it most of the Bose who were in The u.s. came from Europe. Originally and the story is laid out very very clearly and it's not a burden, something to read but the book Return to Jekyll Island by Edward Griffin, that wordy Griffith has some great history about International money lending and also the origin of the Federal Reserve and the connection between the Federal Reserve and other money banking interests. anyway, without, you know, being too specific in order to get the Federal Reserve approved by Congress in this country, there had to be some efforts made because the people didn't want a National Bank after Andrew Jackson, abolished the National Bank when he was president.

31:53 That was it, it was like there wasn't until the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve is a central bank. That's what modern banks are, but it is a national bank, if you will because it gives control of the money over to a bank, the bank creates the money In the past governments would create their own money. Well, the FED needed the support of the government because they need in Congress to vote for them. So how can we organize this and get control of the money? The way they do that is they told the US government that if we can get this Approved.

32:39 We will guarantee that the US Treasury will never run out of money and the way they do that is they they work with them to provide whatever they need. So the treasury and the government can continue to expand and expand and do the things the government does that was the agreement. So that's why the feds involved even though you hear treasury direct auctions and all of that stuff. The Federal Bank, the the Central Central Bank, the federal US Federal Reserve Bank of the ones that guarantee that the treasury ends up with exactly what they say. They need in the amount of Treasury bonds that are issued, and it does end up being a surplus and additional money because it's used as money, even though it comes through that channel, It's not a, it's not a, it's an increase in the money supply because when the the US government gets their money for the treasuries that they issue, they turn right around and spend and it goes right back into the system.

33:48 So, back in the system, now you have an additional increase in what I call Money Capital, which are the treasury bonds that were just issued. So credit expansion is just as much. Inflation as printing, press money. And that's happening every time. The FED goes to auction, absolutely, who is so, let me out, let me ask this question here and trying to figure out how the FED really works. Is there any sort of government oversight than to the FED right? Is there a treasury secretary somewhere that says, hey, we need more Capital, does the FED take their cues from anybody or is the government taking their cues from the fed? This The FED does what it's doing, although it will work to a certain extent to accommodate some situations but not to the point that it doesn't look independent. And that's the feds concern as a central bank and part of this International banking operation, they don't want to draw attention in a way that would put them in a bad light because if people really understood everything, they would demand that the FED, be abolished, which certain politicians know and recognize and have called

35:19 for Ron Paul is the one that comes to mind. He's probably at the Forefront of those who have spoken out about it, the FED operates by lending money creating money that Banks and with fractional Reserve create and land in perpetuity. So that's that's why the FED exist. Now in order to get into Since they had to promise that they would make sure that the treasury didn't run out of money so that there is a process. We don't have to specifically get into it today but that was the guarantee. Then they had to do a Grassroots campaign to get owners and businesses up to speed and that happened by the influence of certain politicians.

36:19 Sharon's businessman. Who could convince people that way this is really in our best interest. So it was a publicity campaign and the first time it was voted down and they had to come back and do it again and make certain changes. And in the beginning, they didn't want the term Bank used because people didn't want a National Bank. It was the Federal Reserve not Federal Reserve Bank. The why Federal? Because if people thought it had something to do with the government, they would see some kind of protective interest for their on the they are part. So Federal Reserve made it sound good. I think and it wasn't a Federal Reserve Bank because if we call it a bank, which it was then, people think national bank, and they won't want it, and they won't allow there. Pollock the politicians to vote for. So I'm going to ask for names who were the politicians that that were out there stumping?

37:27 For this? I don't have all the names. I'd have to sit here and read them out of the book, but there was, there were very well-placed member of the House of Representatives. There were well-known Bankers, Kuhn Loeb had some representatives. There, your JPMorgan Chase. And at that time and others but again it's it's it was politicians and bankers from the US but the ties to the European banking system were there and they wanted a central bank in the United States.

38:10 That would be part of this organization and they recognize the power and the potential for growth in America such That it would help. With their efforts to have this put in place. So now the quit the thing is, this goes beyond that there are other layers where it's more a matter of social control Beyond. Just the idea of the money, you know, the money was used by those who wanted to pursue this and it goes back, you know? Again it goes back quite a long time. The Federer.

38:55 If you look at it in the in there a hundred and some years ago is when we saw the income tax introduced, we saw the origin of the Federal Reserve. We saw the introduction of the public school system. All these things are part of the movement that takes us away from what we had and what we were. You know, I'm glad you brought that up because if you go back a hundred years that is the that's the Golden Era of the progressive, right? And I'll just tell a quick story here and that was during the presidential run that would end up being between Barack Obama and John McCain.

39:50 I remember as a young father and husband, I was watching the debates and it was between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. And someone asked Hillary Clinton, if she was a liberal and she said, you know, I'm kind of shying away from the word liberal these days. I prefer the term Progressive which has a rich American Heritage and and kind of spun it and but it got me, curious. I was like, well, what's a progressive? And so I went and looked it up and it was a horror show. So Kelsey, I mean, it was folks involved in Eugenics, but you're right in the sense that they understood in that time because their ultimate goal was, they wanted to progress past the Constitution? They wanted the two things that Hillary Clinton is famous for saying this, the two things that they want out of the picture, our religion, And the Constitution. Yep.

40:49 Yep. And and their thoughts were that they could do it slowly. They so, you know, as much as it pains me to say this, they've done a really good job with their plan because they understood that, this could be 100 to 120 year plan, but they they've worked the system really well to get to where they are. And so when, when you get to a book, like the creature of Jekyll Island, which is one that I read that you mentioned, yes, you know, Jekyll Island is a swampy island off the coast of Louisiana and I'm like, you know, if you want to create something you think is good, don't set it up in a place that looks like the lair of a bond villain. Right.

41:38 I mean, maybe a swampy, nasty Island isn't the place to be doing this but some of those founding members were like Chase and JP Morgan and I mean very recognizable names today, right? Right. And if and so, they're still members of the FED, correct? Well yeah, you see we don't there's been a transition and over the generations of people. But yeah, I mean that family connection and the moneyed interest in the organization's, you know? For and as we mentioned earlier, Bretton Woods spawned off the the internet, the World Bank and that sort of thing.

42:25 And then you've got other organizations of social All political category that all our part and and some of them are not some are connected in some art but they're still a huge movement. To try and get us to a different point. And they are, they have been patient but I think they reached a point where they decided they can't be patient any longer. And so they're pulling out all the stops which leads back to what you asked about. The possibility of is what's happening right now when in the financial markets and with the economy, is that part of an organized effort to bring About something else and I think it very well could be. I think very much that it could be. You know, I'm going to go out on a limb here and I fully expect to get some push back from this.

43:27 Especially if okay, just for everybody out there, listening, if I all of a sudden died in a tragic accident, go ahead and ask some questions. I'm not suicidal. Let's get that out of the way, but I don't think Donald Trump was the savior of the Republic. I do think that Donald Trump scared the crap out of these folks who want to do this because they potentially saw that one guy with nothing to lose could Could unravel their plans in eight years and I think they did everything they could to get him out so that their plans weren't frustrated. And I think now they've decided, they're going to keep their foot on the accelerator and finish the job. That's that's my fear.

44:11 I hope I'm wrong. I could be wrong but it's definitely a thought that I've had. I want to go back to the fed and its Inception here for a minute. Kelsey We look at this fact that they had to kind of sell the FED to the American people. Now, the American people by and large weren't fans of a central bank, right? I mean, we can go clear back to the founding where Jefferson says that an a National Bank is more dangerous than a standing army. How were they? And then you had, of course, Andrew Jackson, who did abolish a National Bank. How is it that they were able to sell this? Obviously they, you know, one of the promises was, is that the treasury would never run out of money, but was there other promises that were made in conjunction with the creation of the FED?

45:07 Yes, there were and that promise to the government was behind closed doors. So the public didn't know about that. That That was so that the executive branch could put some pressure on the legislature on the con Congress. At least they had a talking point. Here's why you guys need to vote for this, okay? Because we won't run out of money and since you're the ones that do Appropriations, I mean, that's that's the simple practical nature, all right. And but again, In terms of convincing people, this went on for several years because people were convinced in their head, it was the the, you know, the wrong thing.

45:58 The idea of centralization of money was just as much an F Messiah, as a strong central government. You know, it was the same thing, you know, economy and politics now. Listen, it's our personal freedoms. Let us deal with this or figure it. It out. So so what they were told what people were told in the way a lot of this came about was that the public image of the Federal Reserve was presented as an institution, that would be able to minimize the impact of the economic cycle.

46:45 When things deteriorated and basically it was to help avoid panics and crashes. So the public image of the Fed was we don't have to have those panics in crashes. We can control that That's what they said to people. Now, you can look at it two ways, you don't like the conspiracy theory, you can say, well that seems reasonable and they weren't doing it out of Deceit. So that makes sense, okay. But all you have to do is look back at their pattern and and look back at the history and the track record and you find that they skewed the Gold.

47:33 But they did not in any way, soften the impact. What they did is create a series of unintended events that increased in volatility over time and the frequency increases. So the traditional panic in Crash was syringe you know pretty horrific but it was centered in a specific bank. It might have lived you know, blood into other Banks but it was quick. They figured out a way to deal with it. What was the central bank? We simply step in and say, okay, here's some money, make it available.

48:17 All right? So that that was the the idea was the public was convinced if you will that we can smooth things out. So economically, we won't have a problem and then they caused the Great Depression about 12 years later, 18 years. Yeah, I was going to say. I think that At that, they definitely had a hand in. And to be fair, FDR was certainly someone who empowered the FED during that time but people don't remember or I should say. Now, they don't learn that, the Depression was only the Great Depression in America. Most other countries got out of it fairly quickly because it's my understanding, the FED kept tinkering with things that kind of prolonged it, is that true. Oh, absolutely.

49:08 They Resisted on every front accepting what was happening and what was happening. And that was a simply collapse because and that that's kind of the situation we're in everything had been fueled to a point that it couldn't sustain itself any longer. And there was a depression going on in this country, all through the Roaring 20s. It was in the heartland of America was in the rural areas. There was a commodity crash right after World War 1 because commodity prices have been supported by government and that crash in commodity prices made living on a farm or in the country depression of horrible consideration.

49:59 But in the cities they were seeing Wiggly somewhat exempt from that to a degree until the FED decided not to keep loaning money. So cheaply that sound familiar. Yeah we're going to pull back on this and what that did is it started reducing the level of economic activity even before the stock market crashed. The stock market crash itself didn't cause the depression. It was simply an outgrowth of the speculative aspects of being able to borrow as much as 90% of your stock purchase, just being an ordinary guy off the street.

50:50 The bank's fueled, the stock market blow off and then it collapsed under its own weight. But by raising the interest rates, the In the late 20s, economic conditions, had already started deteriorating in the cities and other places before the stock market crashed, and we knew about Europe Europe was having trouble before anyway, so that kind of confirmed everything. Then once the crash occurred and the layoffs started and all the economic activity decreased, Prices were falling, then the government stepped in and said, nope, you can't love you can't lower your prices.

51:37 You have to hire them at this rate, you got to do that. We're going to put work programs in place so they were fighting a natural event. It's like going and say, look I'm sick, my body is releasing toxins, I've got to go through this to get better. So we go in and we take cough syrup to suppress the cough, so we don't get that out of our system and we do everything else. Son to keep the toxins in our body just so we don't have the symptoms. The depression would have been over considerably sooner if they let it run, its course. You know it? Yeah, I and again, correct me if I'm wrong. Could you got, you know, way more than I do on this stuff. And I only know some things from a few books that I've read, but I remember I read a book during 2008 because well, if you were a surveyor you were you were pretty slow. But I remember reading a book that compare different responses to economic Distress and what the outcomes were. And this will tell everyone how much of a nerd. I am I walked away from that, reading that book with a newfound, respect for Calvin, Coolidge when Coolidge takes office, he's facing a couple of things. He actually takes the oath of office, by candlelight most houses.

53:06 In America, didn't have radios. Most people didn't have a car But by the time he was done with his terms as president, most people had radios, most people had cars. What, what you don't find out is that when he takes office, they're already facing a natural. Like you were saying, outgrowth of bad policy. And they asked him what he wants to do and everyone comes at him with all these different ideas of things he can do to make it better. And he essentially says I'm not going to do anything except cut. Taxes and make it as easy on the American people as we can to do business through this.

53:48 And out of that is the outgrowth of like the Roaring 20s. Does that sound right to you? Yeah, I'm not as I've read this stuff before some of it I've read years ago and I don't necessarily remember all the specifics but I agree generally with what you're saying, I just can't confirm it specifically. Okay. Because that because I know what happened after that. And and and before that and and I remember, you know, that they're you remember the show All in the Family? Yep. Parted it 1970. And that's when I think we first saw the influence of the change in television programming, if you will, But there was a song that Edith and Archie would sing at the beginning of the show while she played the piano and one of the lines was mr. We could use a man like Calvin.

54:53 Coolidge again, a president like Calvin, Coolidge or something to that effect. So and and yet every and and again it was that conservative. Understanding and approach as compared to someone like Woodrow Wilson, a progressive and Franklin, Roosevelt government expansion, and that sort of thing. So yes, yes, I, you know, he would have been somebody that we could say is not going to be a puppet necessarily. And less.

55:35 What he did was just because it was important enough to have a breather in there. Somebody said, yeah. But I agree. Yeah. Very different. And I, I walked away from reading that book and for the life of me, I can't remember the title or the author, but I remember I walked away from that book with this very, very profound understanding that. Oh I think I fear the government's response to a crisis more than the crisis itself in E % of the case. That, that is a very healthy fear and an excellent observation. And that's what people don't understand. I don't think most people understand is that what the government proposes?

56:21 As a cure for a problem is usually worse than the problem itself and letting it take place. It'll exacerbate things, It counters, what needs to happen so we don't get better and sets us up for a potential Calamity later. That's even worse. In addition to the fact that all they're doing is fighting the effects of their own errant policies and complete ignorance of economic fundamentals or ignore. Not using it. Not abiding by them. Yeah, yeah. I just I think it was Einstein, who said that those who create the problem.

57:09 Are 99% of the time, not the ones who are going to know the solution out of that problem. And I think that's probably exactly where we're at. Now, we've kind of talked about the FED a little bit here. Kelsey. Let's, let's move on to probably the at least what I think, unless you can think of something else. The next major Benchmark in in Central Banking, and how we find ourselves in the situation we're in now, teetering on the brink Which is Bretton Woods. Can you explain to us? What Bretton Woods was real quick. Sure the Bretton Woods monetary conference in 1944 was programmed as a conference to help restore.

58:01 The country War, devastated, countries, who was it had a very public service sounding mission We're going to, we've got to get things in order. We're going to help countries rebuild. We're going to, we need to provide stability to the banking system. So all of this was a part of it and in doing so though, there were a couple of other things that came out of that, which were intended. And that was because those who were promoting the conference, had other ideas about what it was supposed to accomplish. Each one of those was to get us off the gold standard so that governments would be free to spend money create and spend money.

58:53 Gold. As real money is a restraint on governments and governments. Don't like it. Conspiracy are not a government. Does not like to be. Told you cannot spend more money than you have, and you can't create money. Well, gold was limited. You couldn't go out and just bring more of it into the formula. So it's a natural restraint on Events and that's why it was successful. So they want to gold out of the way and so what you already had ten years earlier Roosevelt's executive order, which took away, gold from American citizens and in doing so they call that a criminal action if you were to hold on to it and they and then they portrayed it that way.

59:51 So, people would start thinking about it in an egg, Native fashion as well. And by doing so. They assumed, they could justify their actions but what it did is scare people too. And they wanted that because they wanted to make sure people turn their gold in and that was done in order to facilitate the need perceived and quotes by government to be able to spend money to get us out of the depression. So the expansionist policies of government. All of that was a part of it, but it was getting gold out of the system.

1:00:38 That was that one? And then the dollar was given the role of the world's Reserve currency. And that was the trade-off. We said, well, look, what do we rely on? If we don't have gold, okay, what year, what year was Bretton Woods? What year did that taking 44, and Who were the major players in in that? In that I guess meeting or Summit however, you want to put it. Who were the major players here? Well you GHIN had some of the money banking at first, but you had representatives of various countries and you had those who see the meeting was organized in order that the real purpose behind this was to create the World Bank and the bank for international settlements.

1:01:43 So and again the idea behind that was to have a funnel where we could have by getting rid of the dollar this week, goes back to those long-term plans. If we get rid of gold, we in thrown the dollar as the world's Reserve currency, we can then create eventually a single currency. And that single currency, whatever we call. It said, they want to call it special drawing rights again, more power and control centralized in an all-purpose government, authorized idea. You know, that sort of thing.

1:02:27 Take a male, a little more of the personal individual freedoms and control over your own lives. So because they were pushing the more control if you control the economy. You can control people. And so all of this was part of this Century, long effort to move us away. I I feel the it's the move toward One World Government and socialism. That's the way I see it and and the socialism is presented in a way that would be positive for people. But and and then there's those who say it doesn't work, but it does work.

1:03:09 It just doesn't work the way those who get taken in by its appeal. Think it's supposed to work. You still end up with serfdom and a small group of Elites who profit and are in control and everybody else has to do the bidding. My son right now is in college and he came home, he has to take classes on. On economics and I don't know which one but he came home and he's like, Dad. I think I know what what socialism is and I was like, oh yeah, what's socialism? I'm liking the fact you have to ask, you know, tell me in this household really kind of pisses me off because I thought we'd been through this, but go ahead. So I was expecting.

1:03:53 You know, whatever. Leftist answer, he has is about to regurgitate. And he says, Dad socialism is like internet dating. They're going to present the best possible picture, but when you get there she looks nothing like what she does in her picture in her profile pic. And in that moment, I don't think I've ever been more proud as a father. So I yeah. Yeah. No, you're right that. That promise of that, socialist Utopia is always a horror show. It never is not a horror show and so I'm always really skeptical and nervous about it when they start talking openly about Out it. Yeah.

1:04:35 Um, so you had I'm just going to kind of recap here a little bit. You first have within America. The the organization of the fed put together by. We'll just call them what they were. They were the elites of the time. They were the politicians. They were the bankers, they put this monstrosity together. They sell it to the American people as something that will prevent depressions and hard recessions. Yes. And it's going to smooth it out and don't worry. This is capitalism's best friend and you're going to love us later for this so that gets sold to the American people. Then you have Bretton Woods which seems to be somewhat similar to the FED only on a global level. Is that correct?

1:05:25 Yes, yes. The Federal Reserve is as a brainchild of the European. Moneyed interest in central banks. So we need, they wanted something an organization clearly visible in this country. So that it that it takes some of the potential viewing of connections between Bankers. If it happens here on on-site and not as likely to be looking at possible connections, between what goes on here and what goes on in Europe.

1:06:08 So and it was part of the big plan because there wasn't any, there wasn't an institution located in the United States. Plus it provides more direct and immediate reaction control to all of the events, things strategy, wise, and everything else for what their purpose is So in correct me if I'm wrong here, Kelsey again, I'm just going off of things I've read years ago and I'm sure because, you know, my memories by not perfect by any stretch of the imagination. But the other promise we made at Bretton Woods is if you become, you know, basically give us your gold to other countries.

1:06:56 Gold will no longer be the reserve currency. It'll be the American dollar and we promise not to inflate our Our money. Is that correct? Yes. That the implication was exactly what you said. What, what they agreed to do was, they would officially value gold at a fixed price and that foreign governments would would receive dollars in international trade, but those dollars could be turned in for a fixed amount of gold. Well, obviously, if you continue to Inflate the currency and the dollars lose purchasing power.

1:07:38 You're not getting the same for your money as you would and so they said we want our gold, you know, the dollars are losing value. So we're going to turn it in. You told us we get, you know, $35 an ounce I want or whatever. They're fixed pricing at the time and I think that's what the government promised to do said. We're the dollar will be the reserve currency but we will guarantee x amount of gold versus the dollar so you can turn them in later. We'll just continue. Use dollars the dollar in essence became as good as gold if you will.

1:08:23 That was the idea if I'm not mistaken back in 2010 or 2012, didn't Germany, basically say, hey, we want some of our gold back and we said no they did and that was their own goal that had nothing to do with the exchange of dollars. That was gold that was simply stored here that was theirs. Back in the 60s is we're late 60s. That's when the foreign government started He's claiming the goal that was legally and rightfully theirs based on dollars which were iou's for a fixed amount of gold and that's when eventually led to Nixon closing the gold window and saying now we're not give you they would sometimes devalue the dollar which meant raising the gold price.

1:09:14 So if you're holding an IOU that you're supposed to be able to get it at $20 an ounce and then it was 30 to 50. 3450. And then it was, you know, people went up all the time. So they kept getting haircuts on their the money that was owed them and then mixes what we're not going to give it to you at all. Now that was all part of the plan but we didn't know when and where and I don't think they did either. We were just they were just looking for a point because this dike we talked about earlier, goes back, a century eventually Actually.

1:09:55 We'd have a currency. Now we're hearing all the talk about a reset and and some type of digital currency, I'm sure that that's an offshoot or an extension of these plans that go back a hundred years. They didn't know what it would be called or how it would actually come about. So technology has helped bring the possibility more in line. But again, The people in control are using what's happening to push them closer to their goals from 100 years ago.

1:10:35 Those organizations are. Okay, before we go, there is there anything in the history of this that you feel like we didn't cover? Well we didn't gloss that we may be glossed over or we just didn't talk about it all. I think with there's there's a couple things that I think are important for people when they're looking at all this and trying to relate it to what's happening right now. The first of all, financially and economically the problems that we're facing. Are not something that happens spontaneously that we have any control over or could have prevented. They are a direct result of the policies of the Federal Reserve. To expand the supply of money and credit continuously all governments inflate and destroy their own currencies by governments.

1:11:35 We include central banks, so that goes on intentionally, anything else appurtenant so that such as conspiracy interest or organizations wanting to push us in a direction away from our Traditional Values. All of that that's It's being used for that even though it's presented as being something else. So I think people need to look at it and say, okay, why, why is in the vernacular of the day? Why is inflation so bad? Well, fed has been expanding the supply money and credit for 100 years. That's what happens when you do that and you can't control that neither can, they nor can they be predicted how bad those effects can be except to know that?

1:12:22 They will be more More frequent and more volatile. And eventually the house of cards will come down. That's I think the overview from all of this instead of hoping that the FED pivots or that they're doing something right, or wrong. The point is, I don't think they can control it anymore. That another collapse similar to what happened 12 years ago. I don't think they're going to have a handle on it and we could very well be in a deep depression that could last for many years and then we'd see the fed and the government coming out with all sorts of new regulations, in order to try to prop things up or restore and get us back to another level, which will make things even worse and take away more of your personal freedom.

1:13:18 Wow. Wow. You know, in Thing is that it's not like it's not like if we wouldn't have looked at history we couldn't kind of see it coming, right? Because Again, the only thing that's different now is the magnitude of the crisis that they have created. But, but good the governments and central banks have forever. Been ultimately responsible for the deterioration of of a country's currency and a country's Financial well-being. I think what is unique this time? And correct me if I'm wrong, is that maybe for the first time you have one currency that's the world's currency and we just happen to be it.

1:14:09 How much of that is keeping us afloat? How much of that is, is directly responsible for us, not having collapsed yet because As you said as we talked about before with Bretton Woods we basically said we will be the gold standard and we will never inflate our currency that kind of puts the rest of the world on the hook with us it's almost like financially mutually assured destruction, right? Right, I don't let one point here. I I don't know, but I'm not convinced that the government promised not to inflate. I think they implied that by fixing the goal price, but I don't think their intention was to not inflate, I think they full, well, expected and intended, and I don't think they promised it that way to him.

1:15:06 They just said we will guarantee that you can always turn your dollars in. See if you have that guarantee. You're not as concerned about it as long. Long as you can get, what is rightfully yours, but the inflation became so bad and it was so obvious that they were pushed to a position of saying this isn't right. We're accepting 20 dollars a barrel for, you know, or two dollars a barrel for oil for the last 50 years country, you know, that oil crisis was changed to a patriotic thing. And it really The bed it was was our own country that brought us to that with everything in terms of it.

1:15:52 But the implication was there. I don't think they ever intended not to inflate and I think that's important when we're looking at all this. It was get us off the gold. Do what we need to take away something, but don't take away this yet and then eventually it goes away and and something comes up and presents. An opportunity. We could say, hey, here's what we've been waiting for. Boom, plus closed the gold window and will appeal to national pride. Those Europeans were destroying our dollar now. They weren't, they want our gold. You told them you were dealing in the transaction. That was, we couldn't do that with a contract in this country. You know, private citizens couldn't So anyway, I think that's important to clarify people. People are never going to be told what's actually going on or what the risks are.

1:16:59 It's always going to present it in a way that makes the bad guys, look good. So, right now, you know, everybody's hoping that chairman Powell rides to the rescue and gets us out of this mess but that's like looking to the Dole to go out after the criminals and bring all your money back to you. Well, yeah and let's just say he did have that change of heart. I'm not sure there's any mechanisms or levers at his disposal that can magic magically cure this. I agree and I don't think that we know what actually goes on inside the Fed see, do you remember, you know, there are certain people that Do not.

1:17:53 And will not. Have access to the Federal Reserve the way it's been proposed because and if certain people nominated for it actually were accepted and put on the board it would open up a big can of worms. So when you look at people who serve And the government and like, treasury secretaries and other places. And either before or after who might end up being part of the FED like Janet Yellen other. There are people legally politically financially. There are some serious deep connections. That go back many many years that are all part of this effort to move us away from the things we value. The Constitution and religion.

1:18:58 God can take our money and our and control over our own destiny. Gotcha. Okay so we've covered the, we've covered where we are now and I don't want to put words in your mouth here, but you think we're teetering on? The brink. I think it could happen very easily. I just feel like I felt that before. I think it could have happened. You know in 28 2011 it's like there's just enough. Possibility to allow for the the expectation. The FED might be able to pull us out of something, but I think happening this quickly on the heels of the covid thing and 2008 to 2011.

1:19:54 I think we're much closer to that single event that would Usher us into an entirely different. Different world, right? We got used to and not an unprepared for K now. And we covered the past. How we got here? What the feds role has been? What Bretton Woods has been and and kind of explained how we got here. Now, I want to look down the road a little bit. I want to, I want to talk about about some things and then maybe ultimately, Something that people can do individually to at least survive.

1:20:38 What's coming up? Because I don't do it. Well, okay, I'm just going to say it. I don't do it very often on on this podcast. But I have a profound fear. In a belief that we're about to head into sometimes that certainly My Generation has never seen, so I know my kids have never seen. However, if you got a little time to prepare, there's got to be some things we can do to lessen lessen the pain. A little bitter, at least be able to withstand the pain a little bit. So, let's, let's look down the road here a little bit. Kelsey, what would you expect to see from the FED in the upcoming months?

1:21:23 A six months into the new year? I I think the FED for quite some time has been acting on a reactionary basis and by that, I mean they are just as much Unable to steer the ship as any of us might be in terms of what do we do? Where do we go? How do we, how do we get, where we want to be? What they are doing is putting out fires? I think they were very much afraid that if they continued their cheap money and credit approach that the dollar would be destroyed.

1:22:11 And that's not in their plans right now. So if they did that, if in order to move away from the net, how to, how do they do it, what can they do? If they basically stopped inflation it's like we said before if that was the real goal to just stop and plaiting, they would just stop creating money and credit but a certain amount of inflation has to be there to maintain things because they've been doing it so long. So there is a certain increase in the cost of living that is absolutely critical just to stay afloat and that's where we've been for a number of years.

1:22:54 So When you get to a point where, you know you see things improve and increase on productive side, maybe 4% annually in Flint inflation is under that number your heads above water. But if our productivity is increasing at a slower rate and then a cost of living is going up, like, it has been, that's just a circumstance that well, we're not quite ready to have this fall apart. So what are we going to do about it without triggering a collapse? And that's the biggest concern here is if they do this and pursue it, can they do it long enough to see the results? If they want that are acceptable, without triggering a credit collapse and that I'm not sure, meaning it wouldn't take much of an event.

1:23:56 All we need is one of those over the weekend. Headlines, that some big firm or big bank has Confess that they are bankrupt. They don't have the money. You know, another long-term Capital Management from the 70s or Salomon Brothers you know it doesn't matter. The big the big interest that firms there on the edge all the time and it won't take much with this kind of an increase in rates and any decrease in liquidity. You throw in the collapse in asset prices and we could have one of the wake up one day and find out the stock market is down 25%. And so I think there's an unknown here. It's hard to say, Well, what we'll, what can we expect to receive from the fed?

1:24:53 I'm not sure. I know, I don't trust them. I don't trust him enough to think what they'll do. And that's probably a bigger issue for most people is, you know, that normalcy bias bias, the well, the federal step in they'll have to they'll stay the FED caused the depression. They cause the, the Problems associated with Y2K. After the fact, they created the Carotid collapse that we saw 12 years ago. Why do we think that we couldn't have another one? And so if they'll continue to jump back and forth as they see things happen in order to stabilize things and hopefully keep the cost of living from going shooting higher that that's about all I could say about it, but I don't have a lot of faith that they'll be very successful. Yeah, because it almost feels like, I don't know. This might be a bad analogy, but it almost feels like we've had a bear chasing us for a while.

1:26:10 And we've entered we've a, we've emptied the clip to the gun and the bear still coming, right? I'm not sure there's a whole lot more they can do. I mean, because if you were to raise those rates, you know dramatically, you're just going to Cripple the economy anyway, so I'm not sure. A whole lot left that they can do go ahead. Well, as you say, if they get rates up to a level and are able to more normal level and are able to maintain them and the economy hasn't fallen apart or at least it seems like it's work a workable thing. Then then they have the possibility to bring rates down again.

1:26:59 A little bit and maybe work it up. That way, two steps forward one step back where to step, you know, maybe that's in there thinking, you know, as a possibility the way and investors are today, They seem to want to create the situation that forces the Fed. So in their own minds, they already have well inflation was down a couple of tenths of a percent last month so the FED won't have to be as aggressive in their rate hikes and they just assume that that's going to happen. So we get a rally but I think they think it's too easy for the FED to change things and I just don't think it is.

1:27:45 Okay, we've talked about that we're on the brink. What does it look like when we tip over the brink? What kind of things do we would would the laws of it of economy. Tell you you could expect as an average family living in a middle to end you know, a middle-income household. What does that look like? I would say the first thing we should do would be to go back and look at what happened in the depression. Because you would see if we have the credit collapse that ushers in deflation which means the dollars are worth less but there won't be enough around.

1:28:31 You know, the government is the Fed is shrinking. Its balance sheet just by sitting on the assets that it's holding without selling any of those bonds that they Bought up a decade ago. They've dropped to Third and value. Anyway, so they're balanced seat is shrinking just by holding assets that are declining. So you got it you have a deflation price levels, come down, you can buy more for your dollars but they're less dollars in circulation. People don't have the money, you have job layoffs, you have bankruptcies. You have companies going out of business.

1:29:13 You have unemployment levels. Is increasing and staying at high levels, all of that. Continuing and then the government comes in and tries to do wave its magic wand and makes everything worse. So, I think that would be the first thing I do is look back and read about what was it like during the Depression. I mean, if you tell somebody they say, listen, how are you going to feel about things? If you suddenly find that your Oh, one k-- is worth one. Third of what it is. Right now, or was eight months ago, how are you going to feel? And how are you going to feel?

1:29:59 If you come home and say, I've lost my job and you don't have a month, no money to pay your mortgage but it isn't just you. It is your neighbors and a large percentage of the population and you see the shutter doors and windows. And you realize Is that weave? Fifty years of economic progress is gone away. I mean, that that's where I would start. I and, and it's because we have never had to deal with anything severe enough long enough, since the Great Depression economically, each succeeding generation, when you look at them and You observe them, Because of how successful we have been industrially.

1:30:59 Technically technologically, we have a level and lifestyle that is beyond what anybody could have imagined even 25 years ago. So it would be so dramatic to lose a couple of Decades of that. I mean, you know, I just love to tell how, you know, said we're talking about the size of computers in in my business management class and and, and I'm like, I didn't even have a computer when I went to school in college. And, and when I filled up the gas, Gas tank. It cost two dollars and fifty cents but half of what you're paying for one gallon so But again when you take something away, that's there, the effect is different. You can go back and look at a period and see their progress today and you could see.

1:32:02 Wow, we're on top of the world then because we didn't have anything to compare it to once we been here and then go back to that the effect is horrendous because then it plays with your psychological and well-being and your ability to just cope with what happens. So I believe a great part of this is being prepared to accept. Severe conditions that are unknown and unpredictable. I don't know how you do that other than going back to something so severe that you aren't aware of it.

1:32:44 I mean, ask any, anybody today about the Great Depression, I mean, they think you were crazy and in most people, this, the current generation, they don't have a good memory of what was going on in 2008. They don't remember the real estate crisis. They don't remember the automobile price collapse, or any of the things associated with that. Yeah, I think they're going to learn pretty quickly. Some of some of the guys that I have to direct it work are in their mid twenties so they never experienced really what 2012 was, right?

1:33:25 I mean, 2008 was right. I mean they were they were they were just way young kids. And trying to explain to them. You may want to put some of that over time, money up a little bit or do something with it worthwhile because it's not always guaranteed to be there and it's like talking to a brick wall but likewise I would say this, I was probably much the same way prior to 2008, right? I remember I worked for a firm who whose owner we would empty our trash or the the maids would empty the trash in the office at night and then he'd go rummaging. I'm through. Now this is a guy who owned a thriving business but he would go through and rummage out the cans and turn them in for for money. And when I asked someone who worked there who knew him really well, he said that's just left over from the Great Depression. He weathered that and he was you know, very still cognizant of it.

1:34:24 I think you're right. I think we have to look back at times on times where, where, that was the case. Do you have any? Commendations as far as reading material or anything like that, that does a good job of explaining it. I, you know, there are books on the depression that you can go online and just click Great Depression, 1930s. And you'll find various articles and depending on the source of the article, it might change, you know, somewhat, the impact your impression you get, but the general ideas will be Fairly consistent from what I've learned in doing that. And at least read what was going on Reed. What Reed?

1:35:13 Something about the depression and Pharma Farmland America in the 20s. Read about what the Federal Reserve and the stock market was like and people borrowing money margin loans and what occurred there and you get an impression of that that doesn't go away. And then you look at the way people are today about their Investments and I just think there's there's a there's a great unknown that is not Parent to them. The risk doesn't seem to be there for them. They just assume that it's a temporary inconvenience and that it'll all be restored.

1:36:04 You know. Some people might think it's good that we haven't had to deal with that but I think it's something that's been postponed that needed to happen and would have been over quickly enough. Had they let it happen now. We're just making things. It's more severe when they do, it's like, you know, when you hear somebody died and you say, wow, I don't where they sit, why didn't know that and then you find out they had something Brewing inside them that, you know, the symptoms did the signs of it were there, but they were ignored or they treated all the symptoms. So nobody knew worried, they might not even know Ty.

1:36:45 I just feel. It's something like that. That is something where we'll say. Now, what do we do? And so, you know, and then then again, you have the structure What was it like, you know, with bank's closing, you know, and what your bank, the next, and what's a bank holiday like and and what about, you know, the lack of economic activity. People didn't like being home for covid, but if you went out there wasn't anything, you could do because everything was shut down.

1:37:31 And people didn't like that. So what's it going to be? Like if it happens again, you know, I there's in some ways, I feel like Covid could have been a blessing for us right in the sense of I think if we were smart, we all would have took stock of just what kind of shape our families were in our family relationships, because we were forced to be around each other for the first time. And I don't know how long, right? You just there was nothing else to do, I think My hope is everybody, who went through that? Especially anyone who's listening to this podcast has taken stock of their family relationships and kind of gotten them stronger, because those are going to need to be strong. I think.

1:38:23 In what's coming Financial right? Where covid-19 and we can also see that there are people who might generally agree with us who still would much rather see are not inclined to embrace a situation like that, you know, we're anxious to get it over with and and also I think the other thing that that's critical here is that We have such a narrow view of the possibilities.

1:39:16 And and and that's what's going to be difficult. Is we were always looking forward to when it was going to get better. I think we're going to be in a situation where we'll think it's never going to get better, because it's going to be that bad. And we're going to say what difference does it make? How how much better can it possibly get? And how soon because it is going to be any use to me? You know, I think that's that sort of attitude that people will develop with the conditions that were facing. Number years ago, I read a book called the age of The Unthinkable by a guy named Joshua Cooper Remo.

1:40:01 That talked about certain events that in world history that were Global in nature and left a lasting impact on society. And one of the things that I think I took away from that more than anything else was assigned, was this idea of think out of the box, right? Maybe it won't get that bad but if you're prepared for it to be that bad you're at least a step ahead, right? And yeah I just don't think anybody thinks about a worst-case scenario no matter how unlikely it is. I think I think with the economy I think we can definitely show that this is going to happen.

1:40:45 I mean it may not be this year, may not be next year but at some point the laws of economy are going to be obeyed. Paid for the F, definitely whether you like it or not. Let me ask you this if we go down, if our economy goes down, we take the rest of the world with us because of Bretton Woods. Correct, Bretton Woods. Notwithstanding the interconnection of an international relations regarding financial and economic issues is so entrenched. And even our societies on a global basis is such that. And then the doll, As the reserve currency, the amount of dollars in circulation that dependency on occurrence. It's just we're also linked that Bretton Woods or not. That's where we are.

1:41:42 I mean yes it's probably a Now growth of that but you can just you don't even have to consider it. We the situation is as it is which means the inner dependency. And and that was true to a great degree anyway during the Depression. In the u.s. might have been able to avoid what happened in Europe or at least minimized it. But then again, you know, are we talking about random events or are we talking about something that's been orchestrated by other forces, right? I'm just, I'd be curious to see what other nations reaction would be towards us, right? Right, you guys did this we threw in with, I'm sure we're going to hear that.

1:42:33 I think we're hearing seeing some of the now, your Europe's in bad shape. They've got their own problems and, and it's all there. They're relatable to the things we're talking about. But you know, when things are going bad for you, it's easy to point your finger at somebody else. when it comes to the financials, I think there's a lot of justification for talking about the dollar and what what's happened on the other hand, when you look at the state of other currencies in the world and the way, government's responded to covid in terms of personal freedoms, and, and financial and economic issues, We're all in the same boat and nobody I think deserves more blame at least with respect to who caused this or where we are. I think I think it is a world type of event and pointing fingers isn't isn't going to matter, right? So if you're again, an average Middle come middle-income, family, We are there.

1:43:48 What would you recommend? If someone was to have this same conversation? You, and I just hadn't said, what can I do to prepare as best as I can and there again, I would focus on what do we know could hurt you if you look what's your exposure, liability wise, what are you depending on that? You might want to do differently. If you knew Something really bad was going to happen. So when you look at everything and say okay you know simple things like well if there really was a collapse in asset prices and it didn't get better right away maybe I shouldn't have all my money in stocks.

1:44:33 You know that that's that's an initial thing that just takes away. A certain amount of anxiety if you're having to deal with other things and then you find that. Your 401k is worthless. So you know I would do some of those things that are pretty traditional that really might not matter at all if things get that so bad but they were sister helped as far as preparing and feeling better and it gives you a fighting chance knowing that you're not tied up that way. So from an investing standpoint, I would be less inclined to be more aggressive. And be much more conservative in my Approach and not expect, what has worked traditionally to continue to work. And that means you might want to say, okay, well, what if I can't use the ATM or get cash, what do you do? And you need to cash and you can't use your bank card. I mean these are the things that I think like what? Let's think about the system.

1:45:43 What are you depended on? Well, every Monday morning, I go to the ATM where I go to my bank and I cash a check and I get some cash. Okay, well you might want to think about having some cash on hand. Right. You know, you might want to think about having some food storage is some kind just to just and you can look at it and say, hey, forget a collapse, what if you're out of work Right? You don't have any money. I mean, forget about the system, how vulnerable are you as an individual? So can you feed your family for a month? Three months? What happens? If all of the banks are closed, what happens if there is no functioning stock market indefinitely, what happens, you know, ask yourself the what ifs and let your mind go.

1:46:37 And then say, okay now, Now, how am I Von der, but what can I do? And, you know, there's, you can't escape it, you can't avoid it. But you can at least start thinking about it enough to say, well, I'd want to know I could do this and I want to know, okay, if and there's layers to this. So just do it layer upon layer upon layer and then you look back and say there's really not much else. Can do I can continue to do what I'm doing and be comfortable but if x happens I won't care that much. If y happens well it'll affect me not as bad if Z happens it probably isn't going to matter what I did, right? Just depends on how bad Z is.

1:47:29 So at least get yourself to the point where you can sustain life and maybe have some Productive efforts at keeping your family, close and living, some sort of of of an enjoyable life or surviving. If that's what it comes to when some of these things aren't there because the financial, if it's severe enough will lead to the economic and the structural Society issues. Yeah. And I'm about to talk about something, very intangible in a conversation where we've talked about things that are very tangible in terms of finance and money.

1:48:18 But I had a good friend who he worked for FEMA as the initial Disaster, Response individual and he said, I can tell you From studies that those who had faith in some sort of God, somehow, fared way better than anybody else who didn't in those kinds of situations. He was talking in this instance about Katrina because that was the one that he had responded to her I think and I think this is why covid may have been a blessing that we have not yet understood The, we're gonna get tossed back to a time. I feel where we're going to find out real quick, what's real and what's not?

1:49:13 I think that this whole thing with the economy is because we in some respects have denied reality for so long. And reality and Truth is going to have its day at some point. And if your personal Foundation isn't built upon things that are real upon things that are solid time-tested, I think you're going to struggle a lot and get get your get your family relationships back, right? You may have kids that come home to live with you after they've been out for so long.

1:49:55 We better be in a place. I apologize. I just feel this in my guts. We'd better get into a place to where we can have good strong families again and weather this storm together. Because if we can't, we're going to be in some your troubles will be magnified. Yeah, yep I agree. I agree. It's just everything is become. You know again emphasis and focus is always on the material, The Superficial, the financial productivity education. I mean we All these things are great. They make life, wonderful.

1:50:43 But there has to be something more basic to give it meaning. And we think as a society have lost, something that It just seems to take away. I kind of, you know what's important? We don't we don't even value life itself. No. They used to and yet and I and maybe it's because life isn't as dear and precious to most people today, as it was 200 years ago.

1:51:24 Yeah. Maybe if we were more fearful, we'd have a better appreciation of life. I mean, I don't want to see that at all. I'm I'm very comfortable where I am, what I'm doing. I look at the things I've done, and that's another thing. What can you do to prepare? Go do something. You've been waiting to do now, you know, if you are, if you are equipped and prepared to take a trip or some kind of do an event that you haven't done before and you're waiting for the right time, You may not get that chance.

1:52:05 So do it fine time. Now, that's something I would definitely tell you and that's good for a lot of people, regardless of what happens. So many people plan around the future that they plan to the point of excluding ever doing the things they really want to do or enjoying it. So, I would definitely say go do some things. Absolutely, you know, that I reminds me of back. When I was living on the East Coast with my kids, when they were little and we're a huge football fan family. Kelsey, and dude, I must have dropped. I don't even want to put a dollar amount on it but we visited every NFL stadium we went from, you know, Foxboro to the to the new Meadowlands we went to Pittsburgh and Baltimore we went to Philly and we went to Carolina all the way down to Georgia to Atlanta. And I look back.

1:53:10 And I think, man, that was a lot of money, but I wouldn't trade it for anything in the world because of the, because of the memories I made with my kids. Yep, absolutely. I agree. And, and so those things have to factor into that, but I want to kill see, is there anything? We didn't cover you want code wanted to cover? I can't think of anything right now and I know you know, once we turn off the microphone will probably think of something we wish we had a said. But what I would like to say, I would like to appeal to hear your listeners and say, look, we like doing it. You and I really enjoy this and I and and I think we'd like sharing it with others and I know Dave you hear from them I would like to hear from some of you and the way you can do that is to just go to my website and sign up to get my articles and they're free.

1:54:15 I don't sell anything. And you can be notified by email when you when I publish a new article and that'll give me an indication. How much good are we doing her? People want to hear this, you know? And so yeah, I would like to hear. Something for back from people. And look, I can speak personally to this, right? Because because I'm on your list. There is nobody, I have encountered that's as good as breaking down complex, economic principles and ideas, as there is Kelsey Williams, he can, he can break that down in a way that's understandable. And many times. I have been fortunate enough to receive those and have a better idea of what's happening, and I can make better informed decisions.

1:55:02 And again, it doesn't cost. Anything just go. What, where can they find you again? To subscribe, Kelsey, the URL. Well, is Kelsey Williams goal.com that's that's all it is. It's Kelsey's goal, facts, but they all the think I do is just type in Kelsey Williams goal.com, take you, right to the homepage, go down to the bottom of the page. And you'll see subscribe here. Click on it, type in your email address, you'll get an email back for verification, click on it to verify and every time I publish a new article, you'll get a notice us go to that website.

1:55:44 Smash that button that says subscribe and get on there because the stuff Kelsey and I covered today in two hours. We're sitting right at two hours right now. We just skim the mountaintops man and Kelsey does a great job in Breaking that down further. So please head on over there. Smash that button. Don't rely on just me for your for your information and and go to the source. Go to Kelsey And and read that stuff because that's going to allow you to have more information on what's going on. And it's going to allow you to prepare more and I don't feel like we have a ton of time. So please read his stuff and get yourselves together because I I just feel it in my gut, some bad things are coming our way and we need to be prepared for it.

1:56:34 Kelsey, you are an absolute rock star, man. I love talking to you every single time. When we do this, what the listeners don't know is how often we speak on the phone? And not only do I think you're a rock star. I just love talking to you and I love the fact. We've been able to become friends through this process. I appreciate it very much, Dave. I feel the same way and it makes talking for two hours. A pleasure. I think really enjoy it. I really enjoy it. All right, Kelsey hang around for a few minutes or so. Other things I want to talk about other than that everybody else will see you next time.